UFC 302 will be broadcast live from Newark!
The Post’s Scott Fontana has a great piece on this weekend’s UFC 302 card in New Jersey, and will be in attendance at Saturday’s card to provide an overview of the event.
Islam Makhachev will defend his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302.
This will be a tough fight for Poirier, who has become more susceptible to being knocked out as he gets older.
Remember, in Poirier’s prime, he lost to Makhachev’s mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Poirier is older and it’s great that he’s still around, but don’t expect a swan song on Saturday night. MMA is a lot like Game of Thrones.
“If you think this is a happy ending, you haven’t been paying attention,” Ramsay Bolton once said in the game-ified HBO series.
This couldn’t be more appropriate in MMA, where careers rarely end happily.
Below we provide fight predictions and analysis for UFC 302. Early prelims begin at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN2, switching to PPV at 10 PM ET.
UFC 302 odds, predictions
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
If you take the blinders off and really look at this fight, it’s really tough for Poirier to win.
Of course, in this volatile sport, anyone has a chance to win, but Poirier is 35 and has taken a lot of damage.
He also was easily defeated by Benoit Saint-Denis at UFC 299 in Miami.
Poirier has just a 63% takedown defense rate, and just 57.1% in his last three fights combined.
It’s also important to take into account that Saint-Denis, Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler aren’t at the same level as Makhachev in the wrestling world.
Makhachev is not going to attack with him, it’s not in his DNA.
If you want to film Poirier swinging for the fences and landing, by all means, do so.
You can get it at +700 so no one will criticize your prayers.
But even if people want to joke about his guillotine choke, there is no other path to victory for Poirier.
Considering Poirier’s poor defensive grappling, Makhachev’s submission price of +100 is a bargain.
Also, Makhachev only has one TKO via ground-and-pound in his UFC career (Bobby Green) so I think his TKO price of £350 is a rip-off.
choose: Makhachev wins by submission (+100, FanDuel)
Shawn Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
The five-round co-main event will feature Paulo Costa and Sean Strickland.
Strickland is a former middleweight champion who basically turns every fight and even sparring sessions into a jab exchange.
If this fight had been three rounds I would have rooted for the lesser fighter, but Costa’s cardio looks painful at times.
Remember his bout with Luke Rockhold, who was a far cry from his former self? That bout lasted three rounds and Costa nearly lost.
He has a ton of talent, but he might need new management to make it to the fifth round here.
Strickland can also point the way to a decision if he so chooses.
But the best way to bet on this fight is for Strickland to win at least 2.5 rounds (+105, DraftKings) in case Costa withdraws if things start to go south.
choose: Strickland to win over 2.5 rounds (+105, DraftKings)
UFC 302 full main card picks
- Islam Makhachev (-600) vs. Dustin Poirier: Makhachev wins by submission (+100, FanDuel)
- Shawn Strickland (-265) vs. Paulo Costa: Strickland to win over 2.5 rounds (+105, DraftKings)
- Kevin Holland (-290) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Fight to go from the second round (-225) | At least 1.5 rounds (-154) | Fight to go from the third round (+102) | At least 2.5 rounds (+148) | Fight to go by decision (+190, ESPN BET)
- Niko Price vs. Alex Morono: Both fighters win by KO/TKO (+105, DraftKings)
- Randy Brown (-180) vs. Zaleski dos Santos: SGP: Brown ML + 4.5+ minutes (-110, DraftKings)
Learn more about the best US sports betting sites and apps
UFC 302 Preliminary Picks
- Cesar Almeida (-115) vs. Roman Kopylov: Kopylov wins by decision (+410, BetRivers)
- Jairton Almeida (-325) vs. Alexander Romanov: Almeida wins by KO/TKO (+350, Bet365), a great parlay piece at ML prices
- Grant Dawson (-500) vs. Joe Solecki: I don’t trust either guy so I’ll pass.
- Phil Lowe (+130) vs. Jake Matthews: Matthews ML (-150, Caesars)
- Mickey Gall (+310) vs. Basil Hafez: Hafez wins by decision (+175, BetMGM)
- Ailin Perez (-185) vs. Joseline Edwards: Perez wins by decision (+100, FanDuel)
- Mitch Raposo (+230) vs. Andre Lima: Pass
