UFC 302 paths to victory: How can Dustin Poirier upset Islam Makhachev and finish his story?

UFC 302 This Saturday in Newark, New Jersey, a lightweight title fight will be held, featuring a showdown between champions. Islam Makhachev And a living legend Dustin PoirierMakhachev is one win away from tying the all-time lightweight title defense record, while Poirier has one final shot at the UFC title that has eluded him in his MMA career. Who will win Saturday’s bout and how will each fighter fare? Let’s take a closer look.

Islam Makhachev’s path to victory at UFC 302

At this point, there isn’t much to say about Makhachev. He’s only 32 years old. Makhachev is the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. And he’s already in the top five of all-time in the lightweight division. There’s a good chance he’ll go down as the GOAT of the division when it’s all said and done, and a win over Poirier would bring him that much closer to that ultimate goal. But how will he do it? Apparently, we already know.

Makhachev spoke about Poirier before the fight, saying he is a friend and teammate. Khabib Nurmagomedov He already beat Poirier. They have a similar strategy in this battle.And “beat” is an understatement. Poirier had the upper hand against Nurmagomedov on several occasions, but the truth is Khabib beat him with far superior grappling technique. Makhachev seems poised to do the same.

Poirier’s weakness has always been grappling: he holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a good grappler by most standards, but he is not strong in positional grappling and is willing to sacrifice defensive positioning in pursuit of low-probability submissions (he won’t stop opponents from jumping guillotines). Benoit Saint-Denis That’s a big problem against a control grappler like Makhachev, even though his coach told him not to. Islam has repeatedly Alexander Volkanovski He could do the same to Poirier if he puts the featherweight champion in a bad position where he can’t do anything. Plus, Poirier has a tendency to give up his back in transition, and Makhachev could make him pay for it.

The key for Makhachev will be how to get the takedown, and fortunately there is a strategy for that. Makhachev is an exceptional wrestler, and while he is not as good a shot wrestler as Khabib, he is even better in the clinch with both knee strikes and trips. When Poirier faced Khabib, he was able to block the hand attacks and Khabib’s initial takedown attempt, but he couldn’t handle the trips or chain wrestling that followed. Islam can do the exact same thing to take this fight to the ground, giving him a huge advantage, unless Poirier gives away his position by jumping for the guillotine.

In terms of stand-up, Makhachev doesn’t strike as much, but he’s a good defensive fighter, has a good kick and good timing with his back hand. Poirier’s lead right hook (arguably his best punch and coincidentally Adriano Martins (He knocked out Makhachev in his only loss) so I think he’ll be fine.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 302: Dustin Poirier’s path to victory

Poirier’s career transformation has been one of the most fascinating journeys in mixed martial arts. Going from a hard-punching, reckless featherweight to one of the most technically and defensively skilled lightweights in the world is no easy feat. And it earned him an interim title and cemented his status as a future Hall of Famer. And he’ll need all of that, plus a whole lot of luck, on Saturday.

Makhachev is often compared to Nurmagomedov in the “better striker than Khabib” sense, but the comparison is off the mark. Makhachev is a “better” striker in isolation, but in reality his game is a mirror image of Khabib’s: tight defense but weak offense, a threat in the clinch, and most importantly, allows the fight to go his way (not as ferocious or athletic as Khabib, but that doesn’t matter). Nurmagomedov’s game is entirely built around grappling. Makhachev’s is not. Makhachev’s game is defined by being a good grappler, but he’s content to transition to that stage within the rhythm of the fight. It’s simply one option for Makhachev, not the only option, and that may be Poirier’s chance of success.

The only realistic way for Poirier to win is to knock out Makhachev. We know he can be knocked out, and we know Poirier is a smarter, harder-hitting fighter than Adriano Martins. We also know Makhachev and his camp are fascinated by his striking ability. If Makhachev wants to start a fight, good for Poirier, so drag him into the fight.

The only time Makhachev showed weakness (outside of the knockout against Martins) was in his first fight against Alexander Volkanovski. Volkanovski fought hard in every phase. Makhachev is not Khabib, so even if he takes you down, he is not going to end the fight right away with hellish elbows and ground and pound. Makhachev is good at control, so he can make it hard for him. The more he makes it hard for him, the more tired he gets and the harder it is to get takedowns, so he starts to land more strikes because he is not the type to force things. If Poirier can get Makhachev out of his comfort zone early on, then as the fight goes on, it will move into Poirier’s comfort zone.

To that end, Poirier must stay in the center of the cage and constantly attack Makhachev. Jab after jab, uppercut after jab, elbow after jab, circle around constantly. Attack Makhachev and see what hits the chin. It might not happen, and he might lose, but attacking is better than jumping for a guillotine that has no chance of succeeding.

X-Factor

This is arguably Poirier’s last chance to become the undefeated UFC champion. He’s 35 years old and, frankly, doesn’t deserve this title. In the famous words of Jimmy McGinty: “There is no tomorrow for you. This is why you are all so dangerous!” Poirier will give it his all on Saturday. Will it be enough? We’ll see.

prediction

I’m a huge Islam Makhachev fan, but wholeheartedly I expect Dustin Poirier to pull off the upset – he’s one of the few fighters everyone loves in MMA, and a title win at this stage in his career where he’s been completely abandoned would go down easily as one of the greatest moments in MMA history.

But this isn’t a Disney movie. There is no happy ending, only the harsh reality of the MMA world and its gods.

Makhachev has a strong stand-up defense, is good on the ground and is too smart to give Poirier a shot in this fight. He is the successor to the best fighter I have ever seen and while I don’t think Makhachev is as good as Khabib, he is 95% there and still the best fighter in the world. Poirier is great but Islam is the best.

Islam Makhachev defeats Dustin Poirier by submission (rear-naked choke) — Round 3, 1:36