A new poll released Tuesday shows the race between former President Donald Trump and President Biden is close in three key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
of Polling from the FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Main Street Research The election results in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are all found to be within a 3.5% margin of error.
Biden won all three states narrowly in 2020.
In Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania, polls show the president’s approval rating trailing 2 percentage points among all voters (Biden 43%, Trump 45%) and among likely voters (Biden 45%, Trump 47%).
In Michigan, both candidates are tied at 45% among likely voters, but Biden has a 1% lead among likely voters (47% for Biden, 46% for Trump).
In Wisconsin, Biden has a 2% lead among all voters (40% for Biden, 38% for Trump), but is trailing by 1% among likely voters (40% for Biden, 41% for Trump).
Biden won all three states in 2020 by narrow margins: 2.8% in Michigan, 1.2% in Pennsylvania, and 0.63% in Wisconsin.
“Right now, neither side has a significant advantage in the three states,” said Dr. Dukong Kim, an associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton.
But the results have been heavily swayed by the addition of third-party candidates, particularly independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who would tip the race in Biden’s favor in all three states if he were to run.
Kennedy said Biden was ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, 38% to 31%, Pennsylvania, 41% to 39%, and Michigan, 41% to 39%. The independent is leading the state by 13%, 8%, and 11% respectively, but his campaign claims he has only completed ballot petition submissions in Michigan.
The poll was conducted May 30-31 in three battleground states via an online panel with a sample size of 797 adults.
