The metrics don’t like Caitlin Clark.
Clark is the No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft. ESPN rookie rankings It is based on various advanced statistics.
The former University of Iowa star is followed by Cameron Brink (No. 2 pick), Angel Reese (No. 7), former Iowa teammate Kate Martin (No. 18), Rikea Jackson (No. 4) and Julie VanLu (international signee).
Clark was averaging 15.6 points per game through Friday, leading all WNBA rookies – more than four points ahead of second-place Reese – but the ESPN model was downgrading her mediocre shooting numbers and poor defense.
“Why is Clarke ranked so low? Advanced metrics have always struggled with how to evaluate high-usage scorers, especially early in their careers, as their ability to make shots on weak teams comes before their ability to actually score. make “Clark is taking a fair share of shots,” ESPN’s Neil Payne wrote. “He’s also excelling in creating for himself (27.5% usage rate, eighth among all players) and others (34.1% assist rate, sixth). And that’s not even counting passes that teammates can’t complete.”
ESPN’s rankings are based on three metrics: Basketball Reference’s win shares, projected wins added by their Player Efficiency Rating, and wins generated according to their Simple Player Rating (SPR).
These three totals are averaged together into what ESPN calls “consensus wins,” and that statistic is used to rank rookies on a “per minute” basis.
And, if that’s enough to kill your interest, each rookie will receive a rating from 0 to 100 on “how they compare to all WNBA players this season in terms of scoring (based on points per 100 possessions), true shooting percentage, passing (based on assist rate), rebounding rate and defensive impact (based on both SPR and defensive rating).”
The simplest analysis of Clark’s situation is that she simply isn’t shooting well enough, is allowing a ton of points on a ton of shots on a horrible team, and is a liability defensively.
Clark is averaging just 35.7 percent of his field goal attempts on 13 per game and a disappointing 29.7 percent of his three-point shots on 8.3 attempts per game.
At Iowa, Clark shot 46.2 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from three-point range.
Ball security has also been an issue, with Clark averaging 6.4 assists per game while also committing an astounding 5.4 turnovers.
The defensive situation is even worse.
Clark was 132nd out of 138 eligible competitors. She’s tops the WNBA in the defensive win shares metric, but five of her teammates rank lower than her, so she might be in the same league as the Fever’s Gary Payton.
All of this combined makes for a profile that ranks lower than the other five profiles.
“Clark’s ranking should rise as the season progresses,” Payne wrote, “but she’s a good example of why high-usage, inefficient young players on weak teams are often overlooked in the statistics.”
University of Connecticut coach Geno Auriemma explained that Clark isn’t yet physically ready to win a WNBA championship.
Opposing teams have not shyly tried to bully Clark.
“This kid is on the wrong team, he has the wrong skill set to handle the physicality of this league and he’s a rookie,” Auriemma said on “The Dan Patrick Show.”
He added: “She’s not big enough to withstand the physical intensity of this league, and she’s not quick enough to get away from it. So like Diana (Taurasi) said, she has a lot to learn, and once she figures it out, she’ll have elite skills that will really help her. But she needs to be on better teams and get more experience, and that will come.”
Another factor may be that Clarke is playing in the WNBA just a month after the national championship game, compared to the long sidelines for NBA rookies.
Clark and the Fever (2-9) return to the court on Friday in a road game against the Mystics.
