The World Series isn’t won in December or January, and judging by how things have gone so far this season, the Dodgers probably won’t win it this fall, either.
The Dodgers (39-25) enter their weekend series against the Yankees ranked second in team OPS, fourth in team ERA and sixth in total runs, but the same problems they had last season remain despite adding Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the roster.
Los Angeles is not a definitive place.
Still, the Dodgers are the heavy favorites to win the National League at +125 on FanDuel, with the Phillies at +310 and the Atlanta Braves at +400 despite being without reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. this season.
It seems that the sportsbooks have also overvalued them up to this point.
If you had blindly bet on the Dodgers money line every game this season, you would have lost $207 (on a $100 bet).
The Yankees are the most profitable team in baseball, so if you had blindly bet on their money line you would have won $1,718.
A big reason for this is that the Dodgers have struggled when it matters, ranking 26th in clutch situations, according to Fangraphs.
FanGraphs says:clutch” Stats: “(This) compares a player’s performance in high-stakes situations, like late innings or close games, to his performance in less important situations.”
As FanGraphs points out, this isn’t necessarily indicative of how a player will perform in the future in terms of clutch rate.
“But some say the numbers don’t show the relationship between a player’s current and future competitiveness.”
The Dodgers are one of the least clutch-rated teams in baseball, and that’s a common theme for teams coming out of Hollywood.
Los Angeles ranked 20th in 2023, 6th in 2022, 20th in 2021 and 16th in 2020.
Since 1990, only two teams ranked in the bottom five have won the World Series.
If the Diamondbacks’ incredible run last year wasn’t enough for you, let me be clear: the National League is a crowded field.
The Dodgers’ “Big Four” lineup struck fear in the eyes of the entire team when it was assembled this offseason, but its gaudy OPS and runs stats were clearly due to two MVP candidates: Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani.
But aside from them, the rest of the lineup was lackluster.
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With Max Muncy out, the Dodgers have a talented top four of Betts, Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.
Outside of the solidly performing Teoscar Hernandez, the lineup is full of players who are almost automatic outs.
The Dodgers outfield has the fourth- and seventh-worst OPS in center and left field.
Second baseman Gavin Lux is batting just above the Mendoza Line with a .210 batting average, ranking 24th among second basemen in WAR and his .554 OPS is among the worst in the league.
Without Muncy’s 1.4 WAR as a third baseman, the Dodgers’ WAR as a third baseman would be -0.9, third-worst in the major leagues.
The Dodgers have four quality players at the top of their lineup, but with the trade deadline looming, the remaining four positions need an overhaul, especially Muncy, who had just experienced a setback He is recovering from an oblique muscle injury and is doing better.
None of that means they’re clear favorites at this early stage of the season.
Essentially, the hope is that the team will add some new players to the lineup at the deadline, but that seems unlikely, with The Post’s Jon Heyman noting that a pitcher move is more likely than an obvious reinforcement at a key position.
There is a wide range of World Series predictions here, from the Phillies (+310) to the Pittsburgh Pirates (120/1).
This year’s Dodgers are not the 1927 Yankees, so expect another upset and no surprises.
