One of the best Stanley Cup playoff series in recent memory has given way to a historic battle for the Cup, with the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers facing off in what will be the longest road trip in NHL history, with the two arenas separated by more than 3,000 miles from northwestern Canada to the southeastern United States.
The series is packed with incredible stories: an old and proud hockey market and a new and revitalized fanbase, two very different brands of hockey, and the best player in the NHL in Connor McDavid, a three-time MVP who is now on the verge of hoisting his first Stanley Cup.
If we separate the emotions from this series and dive into the numbers, we can get a clearer picture of who has the edge in this series and who will ultimately take home the Cup, at least according to the analytics.
Scoring
Needless to say, this is what characterizes the Oilers and what has gotten them this far: only three teams have allowed a higher Goals Against (GF) than the Oilers in the NHL this season, but the Oilers’ +57 differential is second in the West behind only the Dallas Stars, and it’s still close.
No team in the NHL has better centre play than Edmonton. They have a wealth of talent with their top line trio of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The trio has combined for 91 goals and 214 assists for a staggering 305 points this season, making them their biggest strength and the deciding factor in this series.
If Edmonton can get their scoring going, they will be very hard to catch up with. They recorded 765 high-risk scoring chances (HDF) in the 2023-24 season and converted 10.8% of those chances, second-best in the NHL. Vancouver Canucks.
Simply put, the Oilers offense can create mismatches with their puck movement, and when they do, they can hurt opponents more than any other team in hockey.
As for the Panthers, their offensive game is centered around winning the puck, staying persistent and creating chances off of their excellent forecheck. The team ranked 11th in the NHL in points scored this season, but they prefer to control the puck in their own half.
While not a prolific scorer, Florida swallows opponents like a black hole and forces them to play at their own pace. The Panthers have earned a 56.2 corsage rating in five-on-five situations this year, which is a measure of how much they controlled the puck compared to their opponents. They also earned a 55.3% rating in high-risk scoring situations, which means the Panthers created more chances than they allowed.
Comparing expected goals allowed (xGF%) to realized goals allowed, the Oilers are just slightly behind the pace at -1.91%, while the Panthers are above the xGF by +2.75%. According to Evolving Hockey.
Looking at points alone, the Oilers have the advantage, but that’s a big question mark until we get to the next point…
defense
This is where the Panthers really shine. The two teams have vastly different offensive prowess, but the difference in defense is stark. At even odds, it’s nearly impossible to score against Florida. Florida has allowed just 119 goals in 82 games at 5-on-5 this season.
Coach Paul Maurice has the Panthers playing an aggressive and effective forecheck that takes a lot of pressure off of defenders. This has allowed the coach to rotate his defensive line deeper, keeping his best skaters fresh for situations where they really need them. A closer look at the ice time of the Panthers’ top four defenders shows they are well behind the Oilers, but Florida is allowing 0.48 fewer goals per game.
What this essentially tells us is that Edmonton would have been worse off if they hadn’t tried harder defensively, which is a testament to the Panthers’ defensive depth but also their ability to not rely so much on their top defender thanks to the forecheck.
The Oilers’ Evander Kane leads both teams in hits by forwards with a respectable 250, but it drops off quickly after that, with McDavid being the only Edmonton forward with over 100 hits. Meanwhile, the Panthers have seven forwards with over 100 hits this season, plus Sam Reinhart has recorded an astounding 66 blocked shots this season.
Florida is not a team that is happy to fall back and reset, taunting opponents into their own rink, but instead targets opponents in their own box, forcing turnovers, creating chaos and scoring as a result.
Defensively, the key stats are expected goals allowed and actual goals allowed. As with goals scored, the Panthers have the edge. The Oilers are at -0.16 (lower is better in this stat), while Florida is at a ridiculous -0.49.
Needless to say, the Panthers have the advantage defensively.
Goaltending
Anecdotally, it’s common to assume that the Panthers’ Sergei Bobrovsky would have the edge in this matchup, but it’s not that clear-cut. While Bob is certainly the more well-known name between him and Stuart Skinner, the Oilers goalie has performed really well this season considering the circumstances he’s faced.
Skinner had a total of 35 quality starts this season compared to Bobrovsky’s 37. He conceded just 0.25 more goals per game and, despite all the criticism the Oilers goaltender received, his goal point share of 9.2 was above league average.
An argument could be made that Skinner was better than Bobrovsky this season, given the quality of defense in front of each player — an admittedly unfounded assertion, but the reality is that while Bob didn’t have a stellar 2023-24 season, it did relieve the team around him of a lot of pressure.
What will make the difference is whether these teams need to make changes. The Oilers don’t have any good options outside of Skinner, and aging Jack Campbell and Calvin Pickard both have serious consistency issues. Meanwhile, Florida has Anthony Stolarz to fill in if needed. He’s not an every-night goalie, but statistically he’s been better than Bobrovsky this season.
Basically, when starting pitchers go head-to-head, it’s a shoving matchup. Given the depth of their roster, the Panthers have the advantage here too.
Special teams
With the power play and penalty killing as an extension of these teams’ offense and defense, this series is going to be really interesting.
Power Play
- Oilers: 64 of 243 (26.34%)
- Panthers: 63 of 268 (23.51%)
The Oilers lead the way at +2.83%
Penalty Kill
- Oilers: 53 of 258 success (79.46% kill rate)
- Panthers: 51 of 291 successful attempts (82.47% kill rate)
Panthers win +3.01%
This is a very close call. If we wanted to nitpick, we could say the Panthers are better overall, but that’s a stretch. But what this does show is that Florida is more likely to be forced into a penalty kill due to their aggressive style of play. Florida has allowed 44 more power play opportunities than league average this year, while the Oilers have only allowed 11 more than league average.
Overall, it’s a very close story. The Panthers miss their chances but prevent them. The Oilers take advantage of their chances.
Who will win the Cup?
While I’m a big proponent of using statistics to gather information, there remains a lot that analysis can’t account for: the push and pull of a series, the individual head-to-head matches on the ice, the crowd and, in this series, how travel will affect both teams.
However, this year The Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup Finals. Their aggressive forecheck and defensive prowess are much more likely to confuse the Oilers’ forwards than the other way around, and every matchup will require Edmonton to score early and pressure the Panthers to follow through — a tactic that hasn’t worked for anyone so far.
My prediction is that the Panthers will win the series, 4-2, and we’ll have months of worrying about the warm-weather state taking home hockey’s biggest prize.
