Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims he has enough state votes to get over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, but the claim has not been verified by independent sources.
According to Kennedy’s 2024 campaign website, the third-party presidential candidate has enough electoral votes to secure 278, just above the total number of electoral votes needed to win the general election against President Biden and former President Trump. His site lists battleground states such as Michigan, Minnesota and Florida as “completed.”
But The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, which track Kennedy’s voting access, have not yet verified all of the claims.
“Assertive is the key word,” said Scott Tranter, an analyst at DDHQ, which has confirmed only five states where Kennedy is eligible, giving him a total of 40 electoral votes. “The problem is that while states can confirm vote eligibility on their own timeframe, many of them won’t do so until later this summer.”
“The reason we have it ‘confirmed’ on the tracker is because we are speaking to the secretaries of state of each country personally,” he said.
The campaign’s self-reported approval rating exceeds the threshold needed to qualify for CNN’s upcoming presidential debate on June 27. The cable news network set a deadline a week ago for all candidates to reach the 270 mark and receive at least 15 percent approval in four polls. Kennedy still has one poll left, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be allowed to participate in the debate without state officials independently certifying his petition.
Kennedy will likely face an additional structural challenge because of the way the ballot process works: Each state has different standards for how candidates can qualify, ranging from simply paying a registration fee to collecting thousands of signatures in different precincts depending on their location.
Kennedy argues that many states, including battleground states where Biden and Trump are neck and neck in the polls, are already eligible for access, but the certification process could take months. Tranter says the rules are “outdated” and state officials have no incentive to check ballots sooner rather than later.
Kennedy’s campaign acknowledges that waiting for states to “certify” the signatures is a key part of the campaign. Mr. Kennedy began an unusual vote-seeking campaign when he became an independent in October, and it intensified when he chose wealthy philanthropist Nicole Shanahan as his running mate and asked her to help finance his campaign.
“As each state’s deadline approaches, the petitions are sent back to the state to be filed,” the site’s Voting Access headquarters said. “Each state then verifies the signatures, determines that there are a sufficient number, and certifies Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as eligible for presidential candidacy in that state and prints his name on the ballot.”
Tranter, who has worked on contested voting issues at the state level, said this final step could lead to significant delays and possibly legal obstacles down the road.
“They have a lot of discretion,” he said of the secretary of state’s office. “I would imagine there will be significant litigation on this.”
“This is going to be a recipe for a fight over voting rights,” Tranter added. “Unless it’s legally required, states are going to wait until the very last minute.”
