OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghaith said in a statement posted on the organization’s website on Thursday that the concept of “peak oil demand” is nowhere to be found in the organization’s forecasts of future global crude demand.
“[A]Looking to the future, the versatility of oil is what ensures that peak oil demand is not likely to occur anytime soon.” Al Ghaith said:“Just as peak oil supply never occurred, forecasts of peak oil demand are following a similar trend.”
In my own research, I have been able to trace predictions that the world would reach so-called “peak oil” back to the 1880s. From that distant beginning until around 2010, Peak Oil Theory There have always been predictions that the world’s oil supplies have peaked, as large reserves of oil must have already been discovered. But for about 125 years, relentless advances in technology and creative, innovative industries have proven these predictions wrong, and the errors have often been comical. (Related story: Federal government gets final approval for massive gas pipeline after years of pressure and delays from activists)
As the climate alarmism movement gained momentum in the first decade of this century, the tone around this perennially flawed theory began to shift to the demand side. Some anti-oil and natural gas activist groups adopted it as a way to promote the equally absurd idea that it was okay to leave the world’s remaining oil reserves in the ground because demand for alternatives would soon grow. A decade later, this theory, too, has been proven ludicrously wrong, despite trillions of dollars of “investment” in debt-financed subsidies.
The OPEC statement said: International Energy Agency The world will reach peak oil demand by 2030. Addressing this outlandish idea, Al Ghaith called it a “dangerous statement, especially for consumers,” saying it would “only lead to energy instability on an unprecedented scale.”
Al Ghaith’s statement came following revisions to oil demand growth forecasts by the IEA, OPEC, Goldman Sachs and the United States. Energy Information Administration The Economic Impact of Oil Production (EIA) has released its outlook for crude oil production for the remainder of 2024 and through 2025. The IEA revised its 2024 forecast downward by 1 million barrels per day, but now sees more robust growth of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.1 million bpd from a very conservative 900,000 bpd. Goldman Sachs is more aggressive in forecasting growth of 1.25 million bpd for 2024, based on strong global economic growth. The bank cited solid growth in demand for jet fuel, the petrochemicals LPG and naphtha, and gasoline and diesel as the main drivers of this growth.
Meanwhile, OPEC Staying Stable This exceeds earlier forecasts of a 2.25 million bpd increase in 2024 and a stronger 1.8 million bpd increase in 2025. All of the groups see overwhelming new demand coming from China, India and the global South. None of the groups agree with the IEA’s prediction that oil demand will peak this decade.
“Against this background,” Al Ghaith writes in his concluding paragraph:“Because the products derived from crude oil are essential to our daily lives, stakeholders must recognize the need for continued investment in the oil industry today, tomorrow and for decades to come. Those who ignore this reality sow the seeds of future energy shortages and increasing instability, and open the door to a world with even greater disparities between the ‘energy haves’ and the ‘energy have-nots.'”
Unfortunately, the IEA, which receives membership funding from 31 countries including the United States, has earned a reputation for basing its predictions on political considerations rather than on the data at hand. Its status as an apparent outlier in promoting the long-debunked peak oil theory only strengthens that reputation.
As Al Ghaith says, it is crucial that governments make energy decisions based on the realities of the world before them, rather than a desire to push costly and unrealistic energy fantasies, or we risk a major energy crisis, perhaps sooner than anyone thinks.
David Blackmon is a Texas-based energy writer and consultant who worked in the oil and gas industry for 40 years and specializes in public policy and communications.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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