Opinion polls suggest Nigel Farage is set to win the Clacton seat by a large margin, in some ways “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
Brexit advocate Nigel Farage is standing for his eighth election to the UK House of Commons, and opinion polls suggest he may be on the verge of being sworn in at Westminster. Growing national support for Reform UK, the party Farage founded and which he now leads again, plus regional polling by Farage’s ally Arron Banks for mainstream UK polling agency Survation, suggest he is likely to win a landslide victory in Essex in 15 days’ time.
Survation conducted a poll in Clacton last week and predicted that Mr Farage’s reform plans could see the Conservatives win a landslide victory with 42% of the vote, overturning the 72% they got in 2019. The Conservatives would come second with 27% and Labour third with 24%. Times Note The latest poll confirms findings earlier from another British pollster, Ipsos, which had predicted the Reform Party would win an outright majority with 53 percent, Labour with 24 percent and the Conservatives with 17 percent.
Clacton’s new constituency vote
REF 42% (New)
Resistance 27% (-45)
Lab 24% (+8)
GRE 5% (+2)
LD 2% (-4)
1% (-2) Less than 1%June 11th to 13th. Comparison with 2019 resultshttps://t.co/GHjASDgZtv
— Survation (@Survation) June 19, 2024
The paper quoted Survation founder Damian Lyons-Rowe, who said of the big swing he foresees: “A look at UK electoral history shows that big swings like the one currently predicted in Clacton are extremely rare. The predicted swing from Conservative to Reform UK in Clacton is 43.5 per cent. This is significantly larger than many big swings in history.”
“The currently projected change in Clacton from 72% of the Conservative vote in 2019 to 42% for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in 2024 is certainly unprecedented in modern UK electoral history. Such a dramatic shift highlights a significant realignment of voter preferences and could signal a wider shift in the political landscape.”
While Farage will no doubt be pleased with the results, pollsters are clearly having a hard time predicting the support of the new political force, Reform, which, apart from the Brexit Party and the spiritual successor to UKIP, has never contested a national election before and defies the old conventions of the two-party system. Recent national polls have shown Reform winning the national vote against the Conservatives (a historic feat) on the one hand, and in others a distant third.
Savanta Poll Issuer The Daily Telegraph Today is forecasting disaster for the Conservative Party, with even Chancellor Rishi Sunak potentially losing his seat next month – for the first time in British history.
Farage tells packed rally that people’s forces are changing the course of British history againhttps://t.co/buvGFSqDhf
—Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) June 19, 2024
