Grimas’ magic was briefly interrupted Wednesday, but the Mets have won seven of eight games and are just one game out of a wild-card spot heading into a three-game series at Wrigley Field.
Meanwhile, the Yankees face a tough matchup against the Braves this weekend.
The series opener will feature Chris Sale facing off against Carlos Rodon.
Let’s take a look at Friday’s matchup between the Mets and Yankees.
Mets vs Cubs
The Mets will face Japanese pitching sensation Shota Imanaga again in a Friday afternoon game and will be hoping to perform better than they did the last time they faced him.
On May 1st, Imanaga pitched six innings at Citi Field, allowing no runs and only three hits, putting in an overwhelming performance.
His 1.90 ERA is third-best among qualified pitchers in the National League this season.
His expected Fielding Independence Preference (xFIP) is 3.47 and his expected ERA (xERA) is 3.07, which suggests some degree of regression is on the way.
Imanaga’s base performance has also dropped significantly recently, with a batting average of 36% and a strikeout rate of 25.8% in his past five starts.
Hitters forced 126 of Imanaga’s 300 off-speed pitches (42%) out of the zone, the third-highest rate in the league.
Forcing hitters to chase the pitch has been the key to his 81 percent retention rate.
Blocking Imanaga’s secondary pitches outside the zone will be key for opposing lineups, but the Mets should have an advantage having already seen him pitch.
The Mets have been dominant against left-handed pitchers as of late.
Over the past 30 days, they own a league-leading weighted points creation plus (wRC+) of 161 and an OPS of .912.
During that same span, the Cubs have a wRC+ of just 74 against left-handed pitchers and a league-best soft contact rate of 19.1 percent.
So while Jose Quintana is clearly a lesser pitcher than Imanaga at this point in his career, he will be facing a struggling Cubs lineup on Friday.
Despite Imanaga’s impressive performance, the Mets still look like they deserve a chance as underdogs in Game 1, given the other advantages in this matchup.
recommendation: Mets Money Line (+128, FanDuel)
Braves vs Yankees
Chris Sale, 35, is having another great season with a 2.98 ERA.
He has a good underlying profile with an xERA of 2.72 and an xFIP of 2.48.
In his past 121 at-bats against Sale, he struck out 30 percent of batters he faced and walked just 4 percent of them for an expected batting average (xBA) of .229.
He has a Stuff+ rating of 107 and a Location+ rating of 102. His slider remains top-notch, helping generate a 35.9 percent chase rate.
The Yankees have a worse record against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones, but it will still be a tough test for Sale.
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Over the past 30 days, he has a wRC+ of 119 and an OPS of .752 against left-handed pitching.
The Braves offense has been significantly less effective over the past month.
Against left-handed batters, he has a wRC+ of 98 and an OPS of .703. His strikeout rate is 22.8%.
Carlos Rodon is having a nice bounce-back season with an xERA of 4.17 and an xFIP of 4.30.
The matchup at Yankee Stadium is a scary one for any pitcher right now, but Sale has the ability to stifle even the strongest offenses.
Rodon should remain a strong starter for the remainder of the game, but the Braves’ offense isn’t in top form right now.
This total seems high considering the starting pitcher mix, so it’s worth betting on the under.
recommendation: Under 8 Runs (-115, BetMGM)
