Warnings by the UN, US, EU and aid groups of mass hunger and famine among civilians in northern Gaza appear to be exaggerated, according to some experts.
“Leaders said thousands of children would die, but that hasn’t happened and no one seems to be willing to explain why,” David Adesnik, senior fellow and research director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital. Adesnik has been tracking a recent increase in food supplies in northern Gaza, where researchers and media have not commented.
The first warning of famine was issued on March 18 in a report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC), which said famine was “projected and imminent” in northern Gaza and Gaza province. The FRC said that without “an immediate political decision on a ceasefire and a significant and immediate expansion of humanitarian and commercial access for the entire population of Gaza,” there would be a significant increase in “Palestinian mortality and impacts on livelihoods.”
The day after the report, Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the report at a press conference in the Philippines, saying, “By the most reliable measure of this, 100 percent of the Gaza Strip’s population experiences severe levels of acute food insecurity — the first time the entire population has been classified in this way.”
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Palestinians shop for food and clothing at a bazaar in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, on January 15, 2024. (Mahmoud Sharja/Anadolu via Getty Images)
By May 31, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-sponsored Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported that “it is unlikely that all three IPC hunger thresholds were met or exceeded in northern Gaza in April.”
On June 4, the FRC released a different forecast that contradicted the FEWS NET results: It wasn’t “plausible.”The reasons cited for the disagreement were that “FEWS NET estimated in April that the region’s calorie supply covered only 59% to 63% of demand, while a study by the FRC estimated this range to be 75% to 109% when commercial and/or privately contracted food deliveries are included,” and that “if a higher estimate is used, it goes up to 157%.”
Fox News Digital reached out to both the IPC and FEWS NET to inquire about the discrepancies in their latest reports. The IPC said it could not respond because FRC analysts are currently preparing their next report on the overall situation in Gaza, due for release on June 25.
A Palestinian woman works in a makeshift kitchen in the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip on June 20, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images)
FEWS NET noted that while the FRC suggested there was insufficient evidence to determine barriers to accessing aid, FEWS NET “identified significant challenges to both physical and financial access.”
“Analysis of acute food insecurity should (and should not) consider access to and use of available food, not just available supplies,” FEWS NET explained.
FEWS NET also found that “when FEWS NET estimates of kilocalories derived from food assistance are combined with FEWS NET estimates of kilocalories derived from subsidized bread, [World Food Programme (WFP)]-With the supported bakeries [Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories]For commercial/private sector foods, there is no significant difference between FEWS NET and FRC estimates. FEWS NET estimates that these three sources combined will provide nearly 150% of calorie needs in April.”
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Eggs are displayed at an open-air market in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on June 21, 2024. (Majidi Fathi/TPS-IL)
But Adesnik points out that FEWS NET’s original assessment did not include calories from World Food Programme (WFP) bread or commercial and private sector foods, and the FRC found that “FEWS NET simply ignored the 940 tonnes of sugar, flour, salt and yeast that the World Food Programme delivered to bakeries in north Gaza.” While the tone of the FRC’s reviews is always respectful, they reveal the extent to which FEWS NET made indefensible assumptions that led to an underestimation of Israel’s efforts to get more food to the people of north Gaza.
While Adesnik asserted that “famine continues in north Gaza and humanitarian assistance is desperately needed,” he said the “striking differences” between the FEWS NET and FRC assessments “highlight the inherent subjectivity and potential politicization of hunger assessments.”
As an example, Adesnik noted that the failure of humanitarian aid to reach Gaza residents is “an integral part of the charges” levelled against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant by the International Criminal Court when it issued arrest warrants against them on May 20. The International Criminal Court considers Netanyahu and Galant “criminally responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.” Among the charges they face is “planning to:[ned] Use starvation as a weapon of war.”
Cindy McCain, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme (United Nations via Reuters Connect/File)
“Whether the situation in Gaza has improved because the famine declaration was premature or because Israel significantly increased food shipments in March and April, this only shows how ludicrous the ICC’s charges are,” Adesnik said.
Fox News Digital contacted the International Criminal Court to ask whether it would change its assessment that Israeli authorities deliberately starved the Gaza Strip residents based on its findings on food supplies in April, prior to the indictment. In response, the ICC instructed Fox News Digital to send a statement announcing war crimes charges against Israeli and Hamas leaders.
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The Israel Defense Forces are seen operating in Rafah, Gaza Strip. (Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson’s Office)
Other agencies seem similarly unwilling to acknowledge that the dire threat they described as “imminent” in March has not materialized.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and WFP Outlook for hunger hotspots The food insecurity report for June to October noted that “in Palestine, more than one million people – half the population of the Gaza Strip – are expected to face death or starvation by mid-July (IPC Phase 5).”
In response to a question from Fox News Digital about whether the FAO plans to revise its report based on the FRC’s latest update on the food supply situation in the Gaza Strip, the FAO press team said the organization will wait to revise its assessment until the FRC releases its latest report.
United Nations and World Health Organization humanitarian aid trucks wait to enter the central Gaza Strip on April 25, 2024. (Majidi Fathi/TPS)
In response to a Fox News request for comment about the discrepancy between the FEWS NET and FRC reports, a State Department spokesperson expressed concern about “more than 2 million people and the rapid onset of food insecurity more than we’ve ever seen before.” Noting that neither the FRC nor FEWS NET have confirmed that famine is ongoing, the spokesperson said, “Gaza remains in a severe food crisis, with unacceptably high rates of child malnutrition and associated high rates of morbidity and mortality. And the point of measurement and early warning is to spur action now, not wait until it’s too late, to ensure certain thresholds are met.”
The growing flow of aid into the Gaza Strip has been affected in recent weeks by the smuggling of cigarettes, “which is now threatening a UN aid convoy.” According to Israel’s TPS news agency, attacks on convoys believed to be carrying the much-needed cigarettes have caused the UN to halt aid deliveries.
Citing the Coordination of Government Activities in the Regions (COGAT), the TPS reported that 285 relief trucks were transported to the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom and Erez checkpoints. Of these, “only 88 relief trucks have been collected by UN aid agencies and the private sector.” According to COGAT, “more than 1,000 trucks” and “hundreds of relief pallets” are waiting to be collected and distributed.
“The UN needs to scale up,” COGAT posted online on June 20. Aerial Video Sharing Unclaimed aid in the JLOTS collection and distribution facility.
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People buy food at a market in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on June 21, 2024. (Majidi Fathi/TPS-IL)
Matthew Hollingworth, WFP’s Palestine Country Director, recently said: In an interview with CNN “In terms of our work, we have been able to bring more food to the north in the past few weeks, giving residents better access to basic food items, but we need to diversify our assistance. It is not enough to have basic food items; you also need basic health care, water and sanitation, otherwise you will not be able to stop hunger.”
A WFP spokesman did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment on whether Hollingworth believes famine is looming in Gaza.
While various groups continue to say Israel’s efforts to aid civilians are inadequate, the FRC’s assessment is consistent with studies by Israeli academics and public health officials that suggest the aid entering the Gaza Strip is sufficient to feed the country’s 2.4 million residents and meet their nutritional needs.
