UFC 303 paths to victory: How can Jiri Prochazka get revenge on Alex Pereira?

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka will once again be at the helm.

This Saturday, Pereira and Prochazka will rematch their UFC 295 light heavyweight title bout in the main event of UFC 303. The first time these two faced off, Pereira knocked out Prochazka in the second round to become UFC’s ninth two-division champion. This time, the two will meet on short notice to save the bout after Conor McGregor withdrew from the bout due to injury.

How will each fighter approach this battle and how will they come out victorious? Let’s take a look.

Alex Pereira’s path to victory at UFC 303

The first time they fought, I predicted Pereira would win relatively easily. Proczacka’s attacks were powerful but not backed by a good defense, giving Pereira ample opportunity to strike back. Considering Pereira is one of the hardest punchers in the sport, this was not ideal for Proczacka. And I was half right. While Proczacka did stand up to Pereira’s attacks many times, it was his low kicks that really took him down.

Pereira is probably the best calf kicker in MMA. He is good at kicking his leg out without any preparation and is very hard to read, which is especially bad for Procakza, who fights from a long stance with a lot of weight on his lead leg. Aleksandar Rakic ​​was dominating the fight by chopping Procakza’s lead leg, but Procakza pounced on him and overwhelmed him with his attacks. It is much more difficult to fight someone with Pereira’s firepower and technique.

What this means is that for Pereira, the path forward is simple: Do it the way you did in the first bout: chop the lead leg, defend the takedown, and clip Proczacka when he starts to get thrashed. In addition, Pereira should aim for a double jab and prepare for a straight right. Proczacka fights with his hands down, so his first instinct on defense is to slip and then slide back. A double jab followed by an attack puts Proczacka in a tough spot, on the back end of the defense when the power shots land. The double jab and the calf kick will be the cornerstone of Pereira’s bout on Saturday.

Photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Jiri Prochazka’s path to victory at UFC 303

Despite being stopped in the first bout, Proczakza said he wasn’t going to change his game plan going into Saturday’s bout. That seems like a bad idea. After all, doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.

In the first bout, Prochakza took the same approach he does with most opponents: he did a little bit of everything. He gave Pereira a lot of looks in the stand-up, scored one takedown, and then surprised Pereira in the second round with a flurry of long punches that “Poitan” never saw coming. That’s a smart way to fight most opponents, but Pereira is no ordinary guy.

Keeping your opponent on his toes is usually a good strategy. The more he has to think, the more difficult it becomes. However, when Prochacza agreed to a striking match with Pereira in the second round, it was just playing to his opponent’s strengths. Of course, can That’s how you win, but it’s better not to.

The easiest way to beat Pereira is to take him down. This will almost completely neutralize his offense and give Prochakza the best chance of winning the bout. Pereira is better at wrestling and grappling than many people realize, but Prochakza has proven he can do it. His first plan of attack is always to get him to the floor, and once there, control is key. Prochakza’s rough tendencies extend to the ground, and Pereira got up that way in their first bout. The focus is on taking Pereira down and keeping him there, and the offense will come after that.

Of course, there’s no need to fear Pereira’s striking; no fighter can win a fight by completely ignoring one aspect of the fight. Prochakza used a lot of feints to keep Pereira off-balance and had a lot of success standing up. Lots of feints, plus a lot of bodywork, should be the focus of his striking. Prochakza excels with sneaky front kicks to the body, and the bodywork will create opportunities both on top and in the clinch, from which Prochakza will try to take it to the floor.

X-Factor

According to Prochacza, the biggest X-factor is Pereira’s “Spiritual Power” To gain an unsportsmanlike advantage in the fight. But I say it’s futile because any good samurai should be able to nullify the mystical power deployed against him. No, the X-factor of this fight is its short notice.

Pereira was initially reluctant to step in to save the event with only a few weeks’ notice, according to most reports, and was in fact in Australia at the time. Plus, considering he’s still recovering from a broken toe (coincidentally, the same issue that caused Conor McGregor to pull out of the event), it’s fair to wonder what kind of Pereira will step into the cage on Saturday. No fighter is ever 100% ready to fight, but is Poitan still good to go at 75 years old? Let’s take a look.

Meanwhile, Prochakza was also called in at short notice, but rumors are that he has been training as usual, which would definitely give him an advantage heading into the bout.

Is all this meaningless? Of course! Rumors, speculation and conjecture. But if Pereira comes in and doesn’t move like he used to or just runs out of steam in the later rounds, everyone will look back and think, well, this was supposed to happen.

prediction

Due to the short notice, I think this fight will be closer than the last, but the outcome will be the same. Prochakza has some tools to make the fight difficult, but his insistence on not changing his plan and his obsession with Pereira’s “spiritual power” make me think “BJP” learned nothing from their first encounter. In that case, Prochakza is basically high-rolling for a knockout blow against Pereira. That could happen at any time, but the more likely outcome is another fight where Jili goes head-to-head with Pereira’s best weapon.

Alex Pereira defeats Jiri Prochazka by knockout (punches) — 4:34, 3rd round.