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Donald Trump is set to make what recent history suggests is the most important decision of his campaign: choosing his running mate.
If Trump wins, he’ll be the oldest president in history, but the vice presidential choice is important not because of his age, or because it could potentially swing the election: As we’ve seen many times throughout history, the vice presidential choice has little to no effect on elections.
No, the difference is that the Vice President has an incredible lead in future presidential nominations.
Former President Trump’s running mates for the vice presidency include Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Governor Sarah Sanders of Arkansas and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota. (Getty Images)
Beginning with Richard Nixon in 1960, eight of the last 13 vice presidents, excluding Kamala Harris, have gone on to win their party’s presidential nomination.
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The only people who failed to achieve this feat were the disgraced Spiro Agnew, the unelected Nelson Rockefeller, who died before the next election, the long-derided Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney, whose health was in jeopardy, and Mike Pence, who lost to Trump himself. All five Democratic vice presidential candidates — Johnson, Humphrey, Mondale, Gore and Biden — managed to win their party’s nomination.
Compare that to all other government offices: In those 64 years, only seven senators, six governors or former governors, one former cabinet member, and one unelected Trump have been able to secure the presidential nomination.
The rise of the vice presidency marks a stark departure from most of American history. The office has long been considered a political graveyard, as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first vice president elegantly put it: “Not worth a bucket of warm spit.”
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Three of the first eight presidents were vice presidents, ending with Martin Van Buren. In the 124 years between 1836 and 1960, only seven vice presidents became president by chance due to the death of the president. And of those seven, four were abandoned by their parties and never even received the nomination themselves after serving their presidential terms.
What is the reason for this change? Why has the vice presidency gone from embarrassment to heir apparent?
President Franklin Roosevelt and First Vice President John Nance Garner. (Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
It is no coincidence that the rise of the vice presidency has come at the same time that parties have significantly democratized how they select their president.
In the days when the president was chosen in part through backroom deals at political conventions, the vice president served as a bargaining chip and consolation prize, designed to unite the party, not to capture swing votes.
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In many cases, the selection was not given to the second-place candidate (the one who did not want to be sidelined) but rather went to a lower-ranking member of that faction within the party.
Beginning with Richard Nixon in 1960, many vice presidents have won their party’s presidential nomination. (Reuters)
However, the system of primaries and caucuses meant that presidents were less tied to loyalty to party leaders. As a result, candidates had full power to choose their running mate. Over time, candidates began to seek out more prominent politicians who could theoretically boost their slates. This name recognition led to an improved ability to organize for future presidential elections.
Most importantly, a president’s handpicked vice president is often able to succeed him as president, and even if there were personal discord, the president would be looked upon negatively if the vice president was perceived as a poor choice.
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George H. W. Bush lost the election with only 37% of the vote, but two years later, his sons, George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, were both nominated as their party’s gubernatorial candidates. (Gregory Reck/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
The presidency may not seem important, but it is crucial, as Trump’s re-election as the Republican nomination shows. Presidents and former presidents remain popular with their party’s base for years afterward. Consider that George H. W. Bush only won 37% of the vote in the election, but two years later his two sons were nominated as the party’s gubernatorial candidates. Having the vice president take over from the party’s last successful leader is crucial for the primary elections.
Trump’s running mate will be analyzed for how she impacts the 2024 campaign and how Trump chooses to run it, but the impact of the running mate could be much bigger: Even without the age issue, the next vice president would be in pole position for the party in 2028.
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