The Department of Defense is currently in the midst of a generational transition. Modernization Plans for the US nuclear triad (air, sea and land nuclear strike capabilities) could cost taxpayers an estimated $100 million. $1 trillion More than 30 years.
This effort is far-reaching. It includes new Strategic bombersnew ballistic missile submarine And the new iIntercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) system. The newest element of the triad of air arms is the B-21 Raider. Cost-effective On the defense procurement front, the sea and land legs of the modernization program haven’t been so fortunate. Progress on the Navy’s new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines has been slow. Confused With an inadequate defense industrial base, the LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM was recently plunged into scandal by new cost disclosures. overrun.
But there is one worrying aspect of the U.S. modernization effort that has not received enough attention: the new W93 warhead and its impact on the future of nuclear testing.
The W93 marks a significant moment in the history of the U.S. nuclear weapons program: it will be the first U.S.-made nuclear warhead developed in decades since the signing of the Nuclear Weapons Treaty. Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty The CTBT was adopted in 1996, banning all nuclear testing. Although it never officially came into force, it effectively introduced a global nuclear test ban treaty. taboo China’s stance on nuclear testing has earned it the respect of major powers since the end of the Cold War.
The last US nuclear test (conducted underground) was conducted in 1992. Since 1998, carried out A nuclear explosion of any kind would be a notorious North Korean act of disregard for global norms against nuclear testing.
But that was long ago. In today’s world of rising tensions and renewed great power politics, the testing taboo is eroding with alarming speed, with President Trump’s national security adviser recently stating: Resume Nuclear testing.
At the moment, none of the big three nuclear powers — the United States, Russia and China — want to be the first to pull the trigger and break the taboo. But what would motivate them to do so? The answer is nuclear modernization.
Each of the three major powers is undergoing major changes in its nuclear weapons programs. China is undergoing major changes. build up Russia could double its stockpile by 2030. Modernization Russia has its own initiatives that have given nuclear weapons a more prominent role in Moscow’s national security policy, and then there’s the U.S. Navy’s W93 warhead.
of W93, Although still under development, it is intended to replace the older W76 and W88 warheads currently used in the Navy’s nuclear warheads. Trident II D5 Submarine-launched ballistic missile. This is the first warhead developed in the post-testing era, raising questions about whether the United States can build and deploy a reliable thermonuclear warhead without testing.
This question is not unfounded. The quality of the existing U.S. stockpile, which dates back to the late Cold War, is unclear. Meanwhile, the organizational knowledge of how to sustain, maintain, and produce it is unclear. Shrunken In recent years, the United States has sought to rectify this. Plutonium Pit Just to have a basic understanding of the processes involved — the core of a thermonuclear warhead.
The W93 adds to this conundrum. The difficult task of designing a new warhead will face the same pressure to withstand rigorous testing as any other weapons system in the U.S. arsenal, perhaps even more so because reliability and dependability are at the heart of nuclear deterrence. Nevertheless, the National Nuclear Security Administration is confident Assert He said the new warhead “does not require additional nuclear testing for certification.”
One way China has tried to get around this problem is to base many of its key components on older, previously tested warheads, though it is not clear to what extent the W93 is an update of an older system or an entirely new design.
Another interesting opportunity is an alternative to yield testing. simulation The National Ignition Facility is where the tests are being conducted, but experts aren’t entirely confident that they won’t be needed one day.
External pressure for testing is also growing. China and Russia The renovation of the old nuclear test site and the latter Withdraw The CTBT was ratified last year. respect As long as the US seeks to uphold the testing taboo, it is clear that being the first to test could increase tensions and encourage other countries to conduct their own tests.
Washington should resist the pressure of this “testing cold war” and maintain confidence in its deterrent power. If nuclear testing resumes, the United States should not be the instigator.
Scott Strugasich is a research associate at Defense Priorities.
