There’s nothing better than being thrown a surprise party.
Someone thinks of you and gathers all your closest friends and family for a fun night that (hopefully) will freak you out as they scream the moment they open the door. “surprise.”
But what happens after the surprise?
The party continues to rage, but the excitement and euphoria of the moment subsides.
Eventually people start to leave, leaving behind empty glasses, piles of food, and decorations that need to be disposed of.
Surprises don’t last forever, which is why you need to make the most of them while you can.
Atlanta’s Reinaldo Lopez has a 6-2 record with a 1.70 ERA, 25.6 percent strikeout rate and a 1.109 WHIP.
He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 14 starts, and only allowed exactly three on April 30.
He has allowed one run or less in nine innings, including five shutout innings.
Lopez allowed 15 earned runs over his first 79 1/3 innings and entered Friday with the best ERA in the major leagues.
He also ranked 22nd in strikeouts per nine innings (9.19), 27th in strikeout rate (12%), 23rd in WHIP and 18th in opponents’ batting average (.211).
The fact that Lopez not only leads the league in ERA but is ranked as one of the league’s top pitchers halfway through the season is more than fantasy managers (and maybe even the Braves) could have ever imagined, especially for a pitcher who made just 18 starts from 2020-2023.
Lopez’s unexpected start is why Lotto Rage believes now is the time to sell at a high price.
This pitcher was drafted (if selected at all) as a sleeper, not a star.
The surprise was over, and while Lopez was still partying, guests were getting ready to leave.
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It’s time to strike while the iron is hot.
Why act now?
The underlying numbers raise some red flags regarding Lopez’s long-term effectiveness, like his 30.8 percent hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph average exit velocity, or the fact that he had the 15th-highest walk rate in the major leagues (8.5 percent) as of Friday’s game.
He walked at least one batter in each of his first 14 starts, including two or more batters in eight of those starts.
He has given up three or more walks three times, including four on Wednesday (for the second time this year).
Lopez’s projected batting average (.248) is a bit higher than his .211, and his projected ERA (3.97) is more than two percentage points higher than his actual ERA.
Add to that a .279 BABIP, 2.79 FIP and 3.68 xFIP and you start to see the signs of a pitcher on the brink of regression.
Another concern is that Lopez has already thrown more innings than he did in any of the previous three seasons as a primarily reliever, and it’s also the most he’s thrown since becoming a full-time starter in 2019.
(Another example of a reliever-turned-starter who regressed this season is San Francisco’s Jordan Hicks. Hicks was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his first seven starts, but is 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 4.47 xERA in his last 10 starts, a regression that’s even more pronounced. Hicks’ overall numbers are very similar to Lopez’s.)
Does this mean Lopez is no longer viable as a fantasy starter?
No, they could certainly keep him and make him a useful piece in the rotation, but his numbers aren’t going to remain as perfect as they could be.
So if a team has flaws, offering their current top ERA player to a rival could be a big win.
Gavin Stone is 9-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in his first 15 starts.
Despite having the team’s backup, that performance was disappointing for a pitcher who was 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.903 WHIP in eight games (four starts in 2023).
That hot start will catch up with him after a lackluster 19.5% strikeout rate, 3.60 xERA, .268 BABIP and 4.01 xFIP.
Attack now.
Sell, sell, sell!
big hit
Jonathan India, 2B, Reds
He entered the weekend on a nine-game hitting streak, during which he had 17 hits in 33 at-bats (.515), one home run, four RBIs, 10 runs scored, two stolen bases and a 1.427 OPS.
He hit .375 with a 1.015 OPS through his first 24 games this month.
Trevor Megill RP, Brewers
He has converted eight of eight save opportunities this month while maintaining a 0.79 ERA, a .158 batting average against and a 17 percent strikeout rate.
Willy Castro 2B/SS/3B/OF, Twins
Entering Friday, he was on a 10-game hitting streak, hitting 17-for-42 (.405) with two home runs, nine RBIs, 11 runs scored and a 1.230 OPS during that span.
Francisco Alvarez C, Mets
Entering Friday, he was on an eight-game hitting streak with a .556 batting average, three home runs, nine RBIs and an OPS of 1.037.
He hit .415 in his first 15 games after coming off the disabled list.
A big miss
Brandon Fatt, SP, Diamondbacks
In his last six starts, he allowed seven home runs with a 5.11 ERA, a .254 batting average, 36 hits allowed and 13 walks for a record of 1 win and 3 losses.
Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B, Cardinals
Although he recorded five stolen bases, eight home runs, and 15 RBIs in 31 games since May 25, he struck out at least once in 27 of those games (46 times total) and had a batting average of .170 and an OPS of .620.
Bobby Miller SP, Dodgers
In his past four starts, he has an 0-1 record with a 9.64 ERA, a .346 batting average allowed, four home runs, and a 10-11 strikeout/walk ratio.
Teoscar Hernandez, outfielder, Dodgers
After hitting five home runs in five games from June 6-11, he batted .170 with one home run, 16 strikeouts and a .492 OPS over his next 12 games.
Check your swing
After batting .214 with a .728 OPS in his first 54 games this month, Brandon Nimmo entered Friday’s game batting .242 with a .793 OPS after posting 35 hits in 81 at-bats (.309 batting average), five home runs, 17 RBIs, 21 runs scored and a .953 OPS in his first 20 games this month.
– Brendan Donovan has at least one RBI in nine of his last 10 games entering Friday. In that span, he is batting .425 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, one stolen base and a 1.177 OPS. In his first 23 games this month, he is batting .326 with four home runs and 16 RBIs.
– Since taking the loss on May 21, Carlos Estevez (32.8% appearance rate) has not allowed an earned run while converting all eight of his save opportunities. He has walked zero batters, struck out 35.7% of batters and struck out swinging 16% of batters while holding opponents to a .036 batting average in that span.
– Lane Thomas has 33 hits in 115 at-bats (.287 batting average) with six home runs, 24 RBIs, 24 runs scored and six stolen bases for a .906 OPS since returning from the disabled list on May 27, improving his batting average from .184 to .243 through Friday. He is available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues.
Alec Burleson, the second-highest signing in ESPN leagues this week, is not only batting .287 through his first 25 games this month, but in his last nine games through Friday he’s 9-for-22 (.409 batting average) with two home runs, 11 RBI, five runs scored, three stolen bases and a 1.235 OPS.
This week’s team name
Free Willy
