A new survey shows former President Trump’s lead over President Biden in national opinion polls remains unchanged after last week’s candidates’ debate.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll conducted after the debate and released Monday showed Trump leading Biden head-to-head by six percentage points, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. That’s the same margin as the pollster’s last survey, conducted in May, when Trump led 49 percent to 43 percent.
When undecided voters were given a choice, Trump’s lead narrowed to 52 percent to 48 percent, slightly closer than in May, when he led 53 percent to 47 percent.
But Mr. Trump’s lead has grown in the three-way race against independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Mr. Trump holds a lead of about 6 percentage points to Mr. Kennedy’s 12 percent, up from a 4-point lead in May.
Among the 8% who were undecided, Trump led Biden with 46% and Kennedy with 39% to Kennedy’s 15%, expanding from the 5-point lead Trump had in May.
The pollsters also found that a five-way assessment of the race, including Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West, showed Trump with a 7-8 point lead before and after the debate, with the lead remaining roughly the same.
Trump and Biden appeared on stage together for the first time since 2020 last week in a highly anticipated showdown. Biden’s poor performance, including stumbling over his words when answering the moderator’s questions and failing to clearly state where he stands on issues, has raised alarms within the Democratic Party about whether he should be removed as a candidate.
Mark Penn, co-director of the poll, said that while many of the internal numbers are moving in Trump’s favor, including Biden’s declining approval ratings and growing economic worries, the overall race appears to be holding steady in Trump’s favor, adding that Biden is maintaining his support.
Biden’s campaign and key surrogates have maintained that he remains capable of running for president and serving another four years in office.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll was conducted June 28-30 and surveyed 2,090 registered voters. It is a collaboration between the Harvard Center for the Study of American Politics and the Harris Poll.
This survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. Because it is a representative online sample, probability confidence intervals are not reported.
