A new national poll finds that three-quarters of voters say Democrats are more likely to keep the White House with someone other than President Biden at the head of the party.
And a CNN poll released Tuesday suggests Vice President Kamala Harris is performing slightly better than Biden in the head-to-head Republican challenger, former President Trump.
The poll was conducted after Biden’s extremely tough performance in a head-to-head matchup between the two major party candidates last Thursday.
At 81 years old, Biden, the oldest president in American history, is facing the toughest challenge yet in his quest for a second term in the White House. After his halting speech and halting answers in the debates, panic spread within the Democratic Party, with political commentators, editorial writers, some party politicians and donors calling for Biden to step down as the party’s standard-bearer in 2024.
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President Biden and former President Trump will debate on Thursday night. (Getty Images)
The poll found that 75% of voters and 56% of Democrats said Democrats would have a better chance of retaining the presidency if Biden replaced the party’s standard-bearer.
Meanwhile, 60% of voters and 83% of Republicans surveyed said the Republican Party was more likely to win the presidential election if Trump was the nominee than if someone else was the nominee.
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Trump holds a 6-point lead over Biden among likely voters nationwide (49% to 43%), unchanged from CNN’s last poll in April and consistent with Trump’s lead. CNN Poll It all goes back to last fall.
But in a hypothetical matchup, the poll finds the vice president trailing Trump by just two points, 47% to 45%.
“Harris’ slight advantage over Trump is at least partly due to broad support among women (50% of female voters prefer Harris over Trump, compared with 44% for Biden vs. Trump) and independents (43% for Harris, 34% for Biden),” the poll said in a statement.
President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris wave during a campaign event at Girard College in Philadelphia on May 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday immediately after last week’s debate, also surveyed other prominent Democrats who have been mentioned as possible successors in the unlikely event that Biden decides not to run for a second term.
A hypothetical comparison of the surveys shows California Governor Gavin Newsom trailing Trump 48% to 43%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination, trailing Trump 47% to 43%, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer trailing Trump 47% to 42%.
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Biden’s campaign has repeatedly insisted the president has no intention of dropping out of the race.
The poll found that Biden’s approval rating among Democrats has risen to 91% from 85% in April, while 93% of Republicans back Trump, roughly the same number as in April.
But the survey also revealed that Trump has a 10-point lead among independents.
Former President Trump speaks during a campaign event at Historic Greenbriar Farm in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Friday, June 28, 2024. (Parker Michels Boyce/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The CNN poll was released hours after a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, also conducted Friday-Sunday, found that Trump had the support of 41% of registered voters nationwide, while Biden had 38%.
The last USA Today/Suffolk University poll, conducted in May, found the Democratic president and his Republican predecessor tied at 37% for approval.
While Trump’s lead in the new survey was within the poll’s margin of error – plus or minus 3.1 percentage points – there were other warning signs for Biden.
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According to poll figures released Monday afternoon, 41% of Democrats who responded said they want to replace Biden from the top Democratic position.
Only 14% of Republicans surveyed said they wanted to replace Trump as the top Republican candidate.
“There’s no question that this debate has sent shockwaves across the political world,” said David Paleologos, president of the Suffolk Center for Political Research. “Democrats at the polls are giving President Biden some tough love: ‘You’ve served us well, but look at last Thursday night through our eyes. Put your head in the sand and it’s time to step down.'”
The poll also showed that among voters who currently support a third party or independent candidate, Trump leads Biden as a second choice, 25% to 17%, a reversal from late last year when Biden had the lead.
The survey also shows that Trump supporters (59%) are significantly more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters (29%) — a huge gap in enthusiasm that, if sustained, could have a significant impact on persuading supporters to actually vote in the fall election.
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