Sen. J.D. Vance, running alongside former President Trump as the Republican candidate, could help Republicans in “vulnerable Rust Belt states” in this election, but strategists familiar with the campaign say he may not play a big role in his home state of Ohio.
Vance currently serves in the Ohio House of Representatives, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat in the biggest Republican race of the season.
“We’ve been hearing this trend for a few weeks now, but I think Trump looked at the maps and realized that J.D. Vance might be useful in vulnerable Rust Belt states,” Mark Penn, Democratic strategist and CEO of Stagwell LLC, told Fox News Digital about the vice presidential nominee.
“Rubio may be able to help in the Southwest, but Vance would be much better suited to help in the Midwest,” Penn added.
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Sen. J.D. Vance and his wife, Usha Chirukuri Vance, will be nominated for vice president on the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024, at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. (Anna Moneymaker)
Charlie Cook, a political analyst and founder of the independent, nonpartisan election forecasting site Cook Political Report, said that historically, the choice of vice presidential nominee doesn’t have a significant impact on home state elections.
“People vote for president, not vice president, and the vice presidential nominee doesn’t have much of an impact in or outside of their home state,” Cook told Fox News Digital when asked whether Vance’s nomination would have an impact on the Ohio Senate race.
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“I don’t think Vance running is going to change much in Ohio. If Brown loses, he probably already lost,” he added.
Cook added that he believes Trump chose Vance as his running mate to bolster his MAGA base.
Former President Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Miami. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“I don’t think Vance was a bad choice, but he was a consolidator, not an expander. He was just building on the support that Trump already had, not winning new support,” he added. “I think it was more of a choice of future MAGA leaders than, ‘We need this person to get us over the finish line first.'”
“I think the Trump-Vance campaign will drag Trump into a series of contests from Pennsylvania through Wisconsin and possibly Minnesota, but I don’t think it’s going to have much of an impact. Vice presidential nominees don’t usually do that,” Cook said.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Vance could help “win over working-class voters” in states such as Montana, where Republicans are trying to oust Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) testified at the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing, “Passenger and Freight Rail: The Current State of the Rail Network and the Outlook for the Future,” on Wednesday, October 21, 2020, in Russellville. (Tom Williams)
“Republicans want J.D. Vance to campaign with their Senate candidates, but Democrats can’t say the same. [Vice President] “Kamala Harris. JD knows how to win over working class voters and, importantly, will help the Republican Party appeal to lunchtime Democrats who think the Democratic Party’s policies have become too extreme,” Daines said in a statement.
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Trump announced on Monday that he had chosen Vance as his running mate, and the pair were formally nominated for the 2024 GOP nomination on the first night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
