The British Open is weather dependent.
It’s the most unpredictable of the four Grand Slam tournaments, no one really knows how it’s going to turn out, and it’s also the most unfair, with some players favored while others barely surviving – exactly what happened the last time the British Open was held at Royal Troon, in 2016, when Henrik Stenson won.
It’s all based on Mother Nature.
With that in mind, Predictions for Thursday’s opening game.
Meteorologists predicted heavy rain and strong winds earlier this week, but that forecast has vanished. Instead, we’re seeing a cloudy morning with drizzle and light rain in the afternoon. Temperatures will hover in the mid-60s Fahrenheit, making for a typical Scottish summer day.
Interestingly, the wind blows consistently from the south at 10-15 mph. Gusts can reach up to 25 mph, which certainly adds to the challenge, but southerly winds are rarely seen at Royal Troon. The wind usually blows from the north, so the first six holes, which are the easiest on the course, are downwind.
On Thursday, the exact opposite will happen.
The players will typically look to attack Troon’s calm opening stretch but will have to brave a sustained wind to start the championship.
That means the back nine, one of the toughest second holes in the world, will be played downwind, which should help ease the pain of its brutality. The 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th holes are the toughest at Troon, but the 200-yard par-3 14th isn’t much easier. The only clear hole on the backside is the par-5 16th, which is usually a three-stroke hole when north winds blow. But the rare southerly winds should allow many players to finish in two on the 16th on Thursday.
On the other side of the nine, the par-5 fourth and par-5 sixth holes are usually downwind, but that won’t be the case Thursday. The sixth hole is the longest hole in British Open history at 623 yards, so it would be surprising if any player could finish in two strokes. Meanwhile, the fourth hole is 599 yards, which makes it the easiest hole of the week. That said, the wind on Thursday will be a disadvantage for players on the fourth hole.
Play begins at 1:35 a.m. ET on Thursday, with Justin Leonard, winner of the 1997 Royal Troon Open, scheduled to hit the opening tee shot.
Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.
