This weekend’s Brickyard 400 is one of NASCAR’s premier events.
For the first time since 2020, the Cup Series will be held on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s oval layout.
Four years ago, Kevin Harvick won his third career race at Indianapolis. The field will be significantly different in 2024, with Brad Keselowski being the only other driver in this year’s field with a top-five finish from the 2020 race.
BetMGM has Denny Hamlin (+375) and Kyle Larson (+575) as favorites to win.
Last week’s winner Ryan Blaney (+800) and 2018 Brickyard 400 winner Brad Keselowski (+850) are the only other drivers with odds lower than 10/1.
This is my last race before the two week Olympic break.
Here are the races that look most promising as one of NASCAR’s marquee events.
Denny Hamlin to win (+490, FanDuel)
Hamlin, my top pick from last week, came a close second.
With Hamlin looking for his first win at Indianapolis, I’ll be heading back to the well.
He had the car to win the 2020 race and was leading with under 10 laps to go.
Unfortunately, while leading the race he suffered a flat tire and crashed.
Despite the result, Hamlin has finished sixth or better in five of the past seven races at Indy.
He’s also the best driver at Pocono, the closest track to Indianapolis.
There aren’t many tracks in the Cup Series where Hamlin hasn’t won yet.
There’s a good chance he’ll cross Indianapolis off the list on Sunday.
Larson will be looking to bounce back in Sunday’s race.
Kyle Larson to finish in the top five (+100, bet365)
He’s shown speed over the past two weeks, but a crash and a pit road penalty put him off.
I expect him to have a strong run at Indy.
This will be Larson’s first time competing at Indianapolis with Hendrick Motorsports.
He recorded three top-10 finishes from 2014-2016 and showed speed even in lesser equipment.
Larson had one of the cars to win the 2019 race.
He finished second in both stages before crashing.
He also had top-10 speed in the 2017 and 2018 races.
Speed isn’t an issue for Larson, as his No. 5 team is a consistent contender for the win.
As long as he and his team can avoid mistakes, a top-five finish is well within reach.
Ross Chastain beats Kyle Busch (-115, bet365)
History at Indianapolis gives Busch a big advantage over Chastain: Chastain has never finished higher than 17th, while Busch has two wins and five top-five finishes.
But this choice is all about 2024.
Busch is having the worst season of his career, finishing 27th or worse in six of his past nine races.
The team lacks speed and Busch keeps finding ways to crash.
Chastain hasn’t been in good form recently, crashing in two of his last three races.
Still, he has shown much more speed than Bush.
With Busch on a roll right now, fading him out would be a good idea.
Chastain wouldn’t need a spectacular finish to win this one.
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Alex Bowman to win Group D (+240, DraftKings)
Alex Bowman comes into Sunday’s race riding the momentum of a win and a third-place finish.
He’s on a roll to face Chastain, Bush and Bubba Wallace.
I don’t trust Busch, but Chastain and Wallace will make their first starts with their current teams in Indianapolis.
Both drivers expect to finish between 10th and 15th.
Bowman has had a nasty past at Indy, but his recent performances give me confidence.
He’s also the best of Pocono’s four drivers in the Next Generation era.
In my opinion, he is the only driver in this group with a chance to finish in the top 10.
