The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has shown signs of gaining momentum since Joe Biden decided not to run for a second term.
But strong fundraising, well-attended rallies, and endorsements from nearly every major Democrat except Barack Obama have not, at least for now, translated into public confidence that Kamala Harris can win.
The poll, conducted among 1,605 people (1,435 of whom were voters), YouGov Between July 21 and 23 — the period when Biden announced he would not run and when Democratic Party elites rapidly rallied around Harris — only 31% of those surveyed thought the vice president was eligible to advance this year.
There is no gender gap in pessimism about Harris’ future, with the 31% rate applying to both men and women.
Conversely, 52% of respondents see Trump as likely to win.
As expected, Democrats are giving Harris all the boost she can claim on this metric, with 67% of party members predicting a victory for the vice president and a further 14% predicting a win for Trump, with the rest unsure.
Registered Republicans have a lot of confidence in the viability of their candidates.
Only 3% of Republicans surveyed expect Harris to win, while 91% believe Trump will lose in November.
Independents also seem to think a Trump victory is inevitable, with 53% believing he will win, while only 23% think Harris will win.
But one important group believes Harris has what it takes, and that historically they just hold the key to Democratic victories in national elections.
Forty-five percent of black respondents believe Harris will win, while just 33% predict a Trump victory.
Respondents may not think Harris can win, but that doesn’t mean they don’t support her.
When asked how they would vote for president, 41% of respondents supported Harris, who trailed Trump by just 3 points, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. NPR/Marist polls also show a similarly close race.
Of the remaining 15%, the YouGov poll found that a third were undecided, another third backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the rest were spread across a handful of more neutral candidates.
Trump won over 92% of Republican respondents in the survey, effectively solidifying his support, with 3% backing Kennedy and 2% backing Harris.
The Democratic Party remains fragmented for now.
While Harris enjoys a respectable 86% approval rating within her party, 5% of respondents are undecided about who they support, and Kennedy has the support of 3% of Democrats and Trump 2%.
Among independents, who are still undecided, YouGov polled Trump with 37% to Harris’ 32%, with 11% backing Kennedy and a further 9% still undecided.
Harris leads Trump 41% to 31% among black voters (63% to Trump’s 14%), Hispanics (44% to 40%) and self-described “moderates” — a key indicator that could decide battleground states — with majorities of support.
As the Democratic Party hopes, gender disparities are also emerging in approval rating surveys.
Among women, Harris has a slim lead, 43% to 41%, with 7% of respondents in the running, Kennedy has 6%, and the rest is split between minority candidates.
Male voters support Trump, but not in large numbers: He leads Harris by 8 points (47% to 39%), Kennedy by 5%, another 3% are unsure, and the rest say they will support another candidate.
