Outside of the AFC North, the NFC North was as even as any other division last season, with all four teams posting at least seven wins.
The Vikings took a step back after losing Kirk Cousins, but other teams in the NFC North are projected to improve in 2024.
Let’s break down each team and their respective win total odds from BetMGM.
Bears: 8.5 wins (-165/+140)
The Bears traded last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick to the Panthers, setting them up nicely for the future.
The deal resulted in the acquisition of quarterback Caleb Williams, offensive lineman Darnell Wright, receiver DJ Moore and punter Tory Taylor, along with several future picks.
Chicago started last season 0-4 but finished with a 7-10 record after winning 13 games with a winning percentage of at least .500.
Matt Eberflus has turned the Bears organization around in just two years and now leads an ultra-talented rookie duo in Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze.
Don’t be surprised if the Bears finish the season with a winning percentage above .500, especially since their schedule is one of the most easily predictable in the NFL.
Lions: 10.5 wins (-135/+110)
The Lions finished last season with a 12-5 record and advanced to the NFC Championship, but lost to the 49ers despite leading 24-7 at halftime.
Detroit relies heavily on outscoring opponents, ranking second in total offense but 19th in total defense, per PFF.
The Lions re-signed most of their top players, including QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and OL Penei Sewell.
The Lions also acquired Marcus Davenport, Kevin Zeitler, Carlton Davis and DJ Reader in free agency and drafted cornerback Terrion Arnold to fill the void left by the departure of CJ Gardner-Johnson.
For the Lions, it’s either they make it to the Super Bowl or they lose.
Packers: 9.5 wins (-140/+115)
After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers his first two seasons, Jordan Love finally got the opportunity to start for the Packers and didn’t disappoint, throwing for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns.
The Packers were on a roll at the right time last year, winning three straight games to barely make the playoffs and then scoring an upset win over No. 2 seed Dallas before losing to San Francisco.
The Packers replaced Aaron Jones with Josh Jacobs and Darnell Savage with Xavier McKinney.
Plus, the momentum they find at the end of the 2023 season should give them confidence they can be one of the best teams in the conference and the league overall.
Vikings: 7.5 wins (+150/-190)
When you let your starting quarterback go in free agency, it’s natural that there will be growing pains.
Cousins finished ninth in PFF’s quarterback grade, but was fifth in that ranking before an injury sidelined him in Week 8.
Replacing Cousins would be the pairing of veteran Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy, which would be an immediate downgrade.
Additionally, while Kyrie Jackson and Dallas Turner were great picks in this year’s draft, relying on two rookies to solve significant defensive issues isn’t ideal.
The Vikings needed to put more effort into strengthening their secondary, which had the lowest pass completion rate among opponents last year.
Minnesota held opposing quarterbacks to more than 70 percent shooting, nearly 2 percentage points higher than the next-best team.
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Every team in the NFC North improved significantly, but only the Vikings showed improvement by prioritizing long-term growth over current competitiveness.
A significant regression is expected in 2024, especially with the fifth-toughest schedule scheduled, according to Sharp Football.
It doesn’t make much sense to expect the team to win more games than they did last season (7-10) despite objectively performing worse while being in a division where all the other teams are stronger.
Minnesota’s win totals in 2024 will be fewer.
choose: Under 7.5 wins (-170, FanDuel)
