UFC 304 Paths to Victory: How does Leon Edwards beat Belal Muhammad and retain his welterweight title?

July 26, 2024

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad will once again be at the helm.

This Saturday, Edwards and Muhammad will face off for the welterweight title in the main event of UFC 304. It’s a rematch of their 2021 fight that ended in a no contest after Muhammad was unable to continue after being inadvertently poked in the eye. How much can we learn from their first fight, how much have both fighters changed since then, and who will leave Manchester, England, with the welterweight gold?

Let’s take a look.

Leon Edwards’ path to victory at UFC 304

Edwards’ extraordinary versatility has made him one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. Primarily a kickboxer, Edwards is an elite anti-wrestler, but is also willing to use clinch tactics and unique wrestling when necessary. This means “Rocky” can fight in any situation and fight his opponent in the situation that is most detrimental to him. The foundation of all this is footwork. Edwards is great at controlling the distance and creating angles to escape pressure or release pressure when necessary. Edwards’ number one skill is being the one dictating where the action unfolds, and in his first bout with Muhammad, that gave him a huge advantage.

Muhammad is a pressure fighter, and Edwards came out very aggressive, putting him in a corner where Muhammad is weakest. From there, Edwards used constant body kicks to close the gap and disrupt Muhammad. Whenever Muhammad tried to go on the offensive, Edwards simply backed away or changed position, again disrupting Muhammad’s attacks. There’s no reason to think he can’t do the same on Saturday.

Another big weapon for Edwards in the first fight, and one that will likely continue into Saturday, is the jab + rear hand straight. Edwards isn’t great with the jab, but it’s a good enough setup punch, and he was able to sneak in a long rear straight from either stance, and it was always on target. And when Muhammad started to dodge the straight punches, Edwards was able to sneak in a head kick through the guard that hurt Muhammad. Again, all of these should be available to Edwards on Saturday.

One thing that’s new, and we saw some of that in their first fight, is that Edwards seems to be the better clinch fighter of the two. He has better positioning when grappling, and more importantly, he finds clever ways to get angles and land good knees. One of the main ways Edwards can lose this fight is to simply lose to Muhammad, so escaping into the clinch is a good safety valve once “Remember the Name” starts to gain some momentum.

Ultimately, Edwards’ plan against Muhammad is simply to be more of his aggressive self. Stopping Muhammad’s momentum early and slowing him down will give him a huge advantage as he is the more technically skilled of the two. It’s unclear if Muhammad has enough skill to find something else.

Belal Muhammad’s path to victory at UFC 304

Muhammad is currently on a 10-fight winning streak using a strategy that blends pressure, wrestling boxing and cardio, which is a powerful combination but likely won’t be enough to beat Edwards unless he makes some changes.

As mentioned above, Muhammad struggled greatly with Edwards’ range and aggression in their first match, but this is a problem Muhammad has against every opponent. Muhammad is like a snowball rolling down a hill, but he needs to get rolling first. And if you don’t get him out of first gear, his aggression will be lackluster. Muhammad Can not If he doesn’t let Edwards dictate the pace and scope of the fight, he will be lost before the bout even begins.

So how does he do it? The first part sounds simple, but it’s pretty hard. He has to accept the damage. In the first fight, Muhammad got stuck at close range. One of the reasons for that was that he simply didn’t want to get hit when he got close. Well, tough guy. Getting hit is no fun for anyone (well, maybe for Justin Gaethje), but Edwards is bigger, faster, and has better footwork, so that’s the price to pay for being in this fight. And while he may not want to rush in on the attack, sitting at close range is actually worse. Because, like Muhammad, Edwards doesn’t want to be pressured. Edwards wants to stand in space and play a slow-paced kickboxing match. Muhammad can’t just settle for that and hope for the win.

Once Muhammad accepts that he must walk through fire, his biggest priority will be forcing Edwards against the fence. Edwards is an excellent anti-wrestler, but backing him up against the fence will limit his ability to create space, and suffocating Edwards will be the key to Muhammad’s consistent success. To do that, Muhammad will need to double and triple down on his jab. The jab was the only weapon Muhammad had success with in the first bout and will be crucial in this one as well.

The final piece of the puzzle for Muhammad is wrestling. Edwards is a great defensive wrestler and good at stand-up, but the opponents who stopped Edwards were the ones who were able to lock him down and control him from above. Kamaru Usman had the most success against Edwards by forcing him along the fence and controlling him. Muhammad is not a high-level wrestler or control grappler, but he is in very good condition, and that means a lot. Wrestle early, wrestle often, and make Edwards move from the opening bell, because the same shots that might have stopped him in the first round will start to land as Edwards slows down. The more Muhammad can move Edwards, the better his chances will be as the fight goes on.

X-Factor

time.

The event is taking place in Manchester, England, but for some reason, officials have decided that it needs to take place during traditional pay-per-view times in the United States. This means that Edwards and Muhammad will actually walk out at around 5am local time. This is way off from what most fighters are used to fighting, and it could make things worse for one or both of them if they aren’t properly prepared. Both fighters are professionals and obviously know this before going into the fight, but if either of them fails to do this particular preparation, it will give their opponent a huge advantage on the day (morning) of the fight.

prediction

I like Muhammad as a fighter, but this is a tough matchup for him. Edwards is bigger, younger, faster and has a wider arsenal. Plus, Muhammad doesn’t have the offensive power to at least give Gambler a chance to hit something. It’s just not his character and Edwards knows it.

This fight will most likely be similar to Leon Edwards’ previous fights: the mastery of spacing and subtlety will be lacking in flashy moments and less appealing to the masses, and instead Edwards will dominate Muhammad for much of the fight before finishing with another clear but uninspiring decision.

Leon Edwards defeated Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).