Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly outpaced former President Trump in election betting markets in the week since she became the leading Democratic candidate.
As of Sunday, Trump had a 54.6% chance of winning the election, compared with Harris’ 39.2%, according to the Real Clear Politics betting average – a difference of just over 15.2 percentage points.
Markets still favor Trump, but the 15-point difference represents a big change over the past week. On July 20, just days before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race, the Real Clear Politics average gave Trump a 61% chance of winning the election, compared with 18.2% for Harris and 9.5% for Biden, a nearly 43-point difference between Trump’s closest rivals.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)
A similar trend has been seen on PredictIt, a New Zealand-based prediction marketplace that offers “shares” for political outcomes, with Trump shares currently selling for 54 cents and Harris shares for 48 cents on the site. Shares on the platform trade between $0.01 and $0.99, so the price of a share is essentially a percentage of the probability of an outcome happening, meaning there is a 54% chance that Trump will win the election.
Historical trends from PredictIt show that Harris has significantly increased her lead over Trump over the last week: On July 20, Trump’s shares were trading at 64 cents, Harris’ at 27 cents, and Biden’s at 15 cents. This means that the price to bet on Harris has fallen from 37 cents to 6 cents in the last week.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas on June 28, 2024. (Bizayev Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
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The tightening of betting markets comes as polls continue to point to a likely close race between Trump and Harris. Trump is leading Harris in the polls by just 1.7 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics national average. Polls in key battleground states are sparser but also show a close race.
Former President Trump headlines the Republican National Committee’s spring donor retreat on May 4, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Donald Trump 2024 Election Campaign)
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The Trump and Harris campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Fox News Digital.
