The 2023 season was the dramatic climax to Michigan’s grand return to glory.
The Wolverines won the first national championship of the College Football Playoff era, cementing coach Jim Harbaugh as one of the greatest coaches in the sport’s history.
Going into the 2024 season, things will change dramatically for the Maize and Blue.
Harbaugh moved on to the NFL and handed the reins to Sherrone Moore, who was promoted from offensive coordinator.
Let’s take a look at Michigan’s personnel and schedule to see if it’s worth betting on in the current futures market.
Offensive Outlook
Michigan set a school record by selecting 13 players in the NFL Draft, a list that includes last season’s leading passer (J.J. McCarthy), leading rusher (Blake Corum) and leading receiver (Roman Wilson).
Alex Orji, who is expected to get his first opportunity as the starting quarterback, has attempted just one pass in his two years in Ann Arbor, but his strong size and athleticism give him great potential.
Donovan Edwards is poised for another big season as Michigan’s starting running back after being one of the heroes of the national championship game.
Tight end Colston Loveland is arguably the best player in the country at his position.
Michigan State is losing its top six offensive linemen in terms of snaps played last season, and graduate transfer Josh Priebe should be the next in line to fill the veteran starting forward role as Michigan State has had success with similar transfers in recent years.
Defensive Outlook
With defensive coordinator Jesse Minter following Harbaugh to the Chargers, the Wolverines hired veteran NFL DC Don “Wink” Martindale. Martindale has been a defensive coach since 1986 but hasn’t coached at the collegiate level since 2003.
His defense features more aggressive man coverage and blitzes than the Minter and Mike McDonald eras of late, so it will be interesting to see how the different ideologies blend together. Either way, this defense is loaded with talent despite the departure of several big-name players.
Defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are arguably the best one-two punch in the country, and cornerback Will Johnson is a likely future first-round draft pick.
The safety position is in flux, with senior safety Rod Moore suffering a torn ACL and the Wolverines especially being hit with Keion Sabu committing to Alabama.
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Schedule Breakdown
Michigan was the best team in the country last fall, but the Wolverines undoubtedly benefited from a schedule that didn’t test them. The 2024 schedule will pose a much bigger challenge.
Michigan is expected to blow a 21-point advantage in Week 1 against Fresno State, but a matchup with a powerhouse Texas team in Week 2 will be a big early test. Later in the season, the Wolverines will host Oregon at home.
Of course, the biggest game for Michigan is against Ohio State, with the Buckeyes favored by 9.5 points in the market. Outside of the trip to Columbus, Michigan doesn’t play any away games against opponents projected to be CFP favorites.
Final Verdict
Though Harbaugh has moved on to the NFL, much of the team culture remains intact, and the schedule is packed with teams the Wolverines need to beat, including eight games at the Big House.
Michigan’s fate this season will hinge on how it plays out in three games against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. Playing three of the top four teams in national championship odds in one season is certainly a different pace than in recent years.
Even if Michigan loses all three tough matchups, they still have a good chance to finish with nine wins, and these games also provide a great opportunity to avoid risk in the future.
The Wolverines may not be in position to defend their national championship, but they are in position to win nine or more games and compete for a CFP berth this fall.
Best bet: Michigan over 8.5 wins (-162, FanDuel).
