UFC Abu Dhabi paths to victory: How can Cory Sandhagen or Umar Nurmagomedov leave as the No. 1 contender?

Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov are finally going to face off.

This Saturday, Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov will meet in the main event of UFC Abu Dhabi, likely for a shot at the bantamweight title. This fight was supposed to happen a year ago, but it’s finally happening and the stakes are huge. So how will both fighters leave Abu Dhabi and become the next contenders to challenge for the bantamweight title?

Let’s take a look.

Cory Sandhagen’s path to victory at UFC Abu Dhabi

Cory Sandhagen is arguably the most well-rounded fighter in the UFC bantamweight division. A versatile striker, he uses his length, versatility and frequent stance switches to confuse his opponents, but has focused his wrestling efforts in recent bouts. In bouts against Tito Vera and Rob Font, Sandhagen used his wrestling to prepare for striking and vice versa, taking fights to the floor and controlling them when he wasn’t dominating his opponents on the stand.

But Sandhagen won’t likely be showing off his aggressive wrestling game against Nurmagomedov. Umar is an outstanding ground fighter, and Sandhagen’s strategy must end with him on the ground, from start to finish. On the stand, Sandhagen’s length and versatility give him a distinct advantage over the limited Nurmagomedov. And, fortunately for Sandhagen, parts of his style are already well-structured to support this goal.

Sandhagen is already very good at maintaining distance while fending off pressure with footwork, angles and stance switches. This footwork is key. It will be much harder for Nurmagomedov to score takedowns in open space, especially when he is shooting from a distance. Sandhagen needs to maintain his distance, stay off the fence and be aggressive in the center with jabs and teeps. If Nurmagomedov tries to close the distance, he will pay the price and never allow an easy takedown. This is the essence of Sandhagen’s game plan.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Umar Nurmagomedov’s path to victory at UFC Abu Dhabi

Nurmagomedov is perhaps the most anticipated fighter in mixed martial arts. Making his UFC debut in 2021 and shouldering the burden of expectation that comes with sharing the same last name as one of the greatest fighters of all time, Nurmagomedov hasn’t done anything to dampen the expectations surrounding him. In fact, the biggest obstacle to Nurmagomedov’s rise up the ranks is the lack of fighters willing to fight him. That all changes on Saturday.

One of Nurmagomedov’s big selling points is that he’s a world-class grappler and can strike, which is a bit short-sighted, but not by much. Nurmagomedov, like his cousin Khabib and brother Usman, is an exceptional wrestler and grappler, but his striking is a bit of an exaggeration.

That doesn’t mean Nurmagomedov doesn’t have the hands. There’s real flair in his game, especially with his kicks, and he has more natural power than most of the other fighters in Team Khabib’s fight camp. But he still has limitations on his footwork (he basically never uses his left hand) and tends to be bad, especially on defense. But at the end of the day, his grappling ability makes up for any other shortcomings well, so it still doesn’t matter.

Nurmagomedov is adept at snatching the leg when he’s in a pinch or when the opportunity arises, and then his ability to run the pipes, string moves together, move his opponent to the fence, or sneak behind him, much like Khabib, is a multi-layered grappling attack that Nurmagomedov can launch from almost nothing. Grappling is Nurmagomedov’s greatest weapon and how he’s going to win this fight.

prediction

Cory Sandhagen is likely to be Umar Nurmagomedov’s toughest opponent in the bantamweight division. With his experience, well-rounded skills and impressive striking, he’ll make a big jump in competition with Nurmagomedov. It’ll be like going from driving a go-kart to driving a Formula 1 car.

But Nurmagomedov Max Verstappen.

Sandhagen is well-rounded but has never been an elite defensive wrestler, and no matter how good he is on the ground, Nurmagomedov is the better man in what will be the Dagestan native’s debut bout to earn himself a ticket to the bantamweight title.

Umar Nurmagomedov defeats Cory Sandhagen by submission (rear-naked choke) — Round 3, 2:20