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Population exodus from major cities in Democratic-run states continues.
The report, compiled by Bank of America analysts and based on anonymized internal client data, found that more Americans are leaving predominantly Democratic cities such as San Francisco and New York.
Many cities in the Northeast and West saw “significant population declines” in the three months between April and June, continuing a long-term trend that began during the pandemic.
In the Northeast, New York and Boston saw the largest net outflows, while in the West, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland, Oregon saw the largest population losses.
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New York and California have some of the highest tax burdens in the country, and San Francisco is also suffering a sharp increase in property-related crime, according to the California Department of Justice’s Center for Criminal Justice Statistics.
A truck is parked in front of a U-Haul facility in New York City on August 31, 2020. (John Lampalski/Getty Images/Getty Images)
Among the nation’s 23 largest metropolitan areas, Columbus, Ohio, will see the largest inflow of population in the second quarter of 2024, followed by Austin, Texas; Las Vegas, Texas; San Antonio, Texas; and Jacksonville, Florida.
Texas, Florida, and Nevada do not have a state income tax.
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Still, the Bank of America study also showed that fewer households are moving between cities, likely due to the rise in “hidden” costs of homeownership. Homeowner’s insurance and property taxes are among the “hidden” costs that have skyrocketed in recent years, especially in the Sun Belt.
Gen Z and lower-income households were more likely to move in the second quarter, according to the report, but this was likely driven by economic necessity rather than choice.
View of downtown Austin, Texas. (iStock/iStock)
“In our view, current levels of intercity migration are being held back by the ‘hidden’ costs of homeownership and more obvious costs such as rising mortgage rates,” the report said. “At the same time, Gen Z and lower-income earners, especially those in renters, continue to move.”
Low housing prices and high costs of living are likely the main reasons why young Americans and lower-income families are moving.
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“It is also notable that younger people and lower-income households have an easier time changing their address because they are more likely to be renters than homeowners,” the report said. Homeownership rates among Americans aged 25 to 30 are just 35 percent, compared with 66 percent for all age groups.
