Sin and war often go hand in hand. In Yahya Sinwar’s case, they became demonically fused.
Hamas’ military leader was elevated to political leadership after Israel killed his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week.
Haniyeh’s past evil deeds against humanity in the Middle East – greed, avarice and conspiracy – are now fully under his control as he takes command of Hamas’ bloody terrorist war against Israel and its civilians.
The timing of Sinwar’s promotion is interesting. InitiallyKhaled MeshaalHe was expected to return to the position of Hamas’s political bureau chief, a position he held from 1996 to 2017, but Sinwar is said to have vetoed the move.
Other candidates included a Hamas spokesman.Khalil Al-KhayyaOne of the co-founders of HamasMusa Abu Marzouk.
But it was Sinwar who got the job.
On the surface, this may simply be Hamas sending a message to Jerusalem that it has now completely let up, that its military and political factions are now fully united and continuing their genocidal war against Israel.
It could also be a sign of weakness: Sinwar likely recognizes that (contrary to reports) Hamas forces in Gaza are rapidly depleting, greatly reducing their fighting power and command and control.
In that respect, the selection of Sinwar may be an attempt to obscure Hamas’ military weakness by allowing Israel and its intermediaries, Egypt and the United States, to negotiate a ceasefire directly with him.
Or maybe it’s something deeper.
Iran may be behind Sinwar’s unexpected rise to absolute power. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, humiliated by the assassination of Haniyeh in downtown Tehran on the same day as the inauguration of the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezechkian, may have decided to intensify his attacks on Sinwar and Hamas.
Israeli Foreign Minister Katz certainly believes so: He sees Iran as trying to escalate the conflict and exploit Hamas for its own gain.Political and military control over the West Bank.
While Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas, ostensibly controls the West Bank, Hamas continues to expand its influence at the grassroots level. To consolidate Fatah’s control, Abbas visited Beijing in early June and signed an economic “strategic partnership” between Hamas and Fatah. China and the Palestinian Authority.
Then, in late July, perhaps to avoid expanding Hamas’ influence,Abbas promised“A national unity government will be established to govern the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip following the conclusion of the Israeli-Hamas war.” Notably, the agreement was brokered by China, and also included 12 other Palestinian factions vying for power.
It’s unlikely the deal will ultimately hold: no similar agreement has ever been reached between the two Palestinian groups before, and Fatah and Hamas have been bitter enemies for decades. In 2007, theyFought the civil warAs a result, Hamas took control of the entire Gaza Strip, while Fatah retained control of the West Bank.
“The Palestinians are not just a Muslim nation, but a nation that is not a Muslim nation. They are also Muslims, and they are Muslims. They are …
Abbas appears to suspect Iran may be trying to deceive him. On Tuesday, Russian state news agency RIA reported that heTravel to Moscow in mid-AugustMeet with Russian officials.
But Russia also appears to be playing a deep game. On Monday, Sergei Shoigu, secretary-general of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new Security Council, said:Traveled to TehranUrgent meeting with Mr Pezeshkian.
Moscow likes to do so when it wants to distract from the war in Ukraine, as evidenced by its coverage of Putin’s counterattack in Akhdiivka on October 7.
However, with F-16s being deployed in Ukraine and reports of Ukrainian forces conducting a ground incursion into Kursk, Russia, the Kremlin likely does not want to be indirectly drawn into a war between Israel and Iran. Moscow needs Iranian drones flowing into Russia, and it does not want Iran to squander increasingly scarce Russian air defense assets such as the S-400.
Two anonymous Iranian officials later reported:President Putin “Khamenei called for a restrained response to Israel’s alleged killing of a Hamas leader and advised it to refrain from attacking Israeli civilians.” Translation: Putin cannot militarily allow the Middle East to get out of control right now. He fears what Iranian drone and missile attacks could cause.Many Israeli casualtiesThat’s exactly what he would do.
In that respect, promoting Sinwar may be Putin and Iran’s interim Plan B, especially as Tehran accelerates its rapidly expanding nuclear weapons program, which would keep the fighting largely confined to Gaza and Lebanon, further widening the rift between Jerusalem and Washington.
Sinwar would likely be happy to play the role, perhaps with his own survival in mind, but he has also long known he is a dying tunnel-digger.
There are rarely any certainties in the Middle East. Deciphering the region is really like peering into a kaleidoscope: One slight twist to the left or right and everything changes. And now there are many subtle twists being made — not just by Sinwar, Iran, and the usual suspects, but by Moscow and Beijing as well.
One thing is for sure: Sinwar has risen to the top of Mossad’s hit list. They will likely catch the culprit after all, as they always do. This may also be part of the Axis of Evil’s long-term plan.
Mark TothHe writes about national security and foreign policy. Colonel Jonathan Sweet (Ret.)He served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years and led U.S. European Command’s Intelligence Division from 2012 to 2014.
