In the space of a week, Paul Skenes’ odds to win National League Rookie of the Year have dropped from -3000 to -390 on FanDuel. Two things have happened.
1. Skenes showed he was human, allowing four runs to the Dodgers in a series that the Pirates lost.
2. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill was 9-for-16 with four home runs and eight RBIs in four games, helping the Padres stay on par with the Dodgers in the NL West.
For Skenes, there are signs of rookie fatigue, but it could end up being just a one-game slump.
His “sprinkler” looked hittable for the first time, and his first-inning fastball topped out at “just” 98.6 mph, the lowest of the season, according to Codify Baseball.
Codify has also been tracking the number of times he’s hit 100 mph, and those have also been declining, from 53 times in his first five games to 21 times in his next five games and just four times in his final five games.
If the Pirates (56-62) are eliminated for good, they would fall six games behind the Braves for the final wild-card spot as of Tuesday, but their genius would be the prime candidate to be contained.
That, combined with a slow rookie season, could make it difficult for voters to award a trophy to a player with such an incomplete resume.
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We’re going to go with Merrill over Skenes, who has been consistent from start to finish in other seasons and has been a dominant winner.
The play: Jackson Merrill to win National League Rookie of the Year (+275, DraftKings).
