Way-too-early 2024 WNBA Playoffs preview, with matchups, predictions and more

August 14, 2024

The WNBA playoffs are scheduled to begin in just over a month, on September 22. There’s still a ton of regular-season basketball left, but if the postseason were to start today, we could expect some pretty exciting first-round matchups.

Midseason is here WNBA Ranking:

New York Liberty (21-4)
Connecticut Sun (18-6)
Minnesota Lynx (17-8)
Seattle Storm (17-8)
Las Vegas Aces (16-8)
Phoenix Mercury (13-12)
Indiana Fever (11-15)
Chicago Sky (10-14)
Atlanta Dream (7-17)
Los Angeles Sparks (6 wins, 18 losses)
Washington Mystics (6-19)
Dallas Wings (6-19)

The top eight teams in the league qualify for the playoffs, which means that as of now, the Dream, Sparks, Mystics and Wings are all out of the running for a playoff spot – that could change if any of these teams perform well, but the Fever and Sky have some wiggle room for the seventh and eighth seeds.

The first round is a best-of-three format, with the team with the better record hosting the first two games and then traveling for the third game if the first two games are draws.

If the playoffs started today, the following teams would face each other in the first round:

#1 Liberty vs #8 Sky

Featured Players: Breanna Stewart (Liberty), Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty), Jonquel Jones (Liberty), Betnijah Rainey Hamilton (Liberty), Angel Reese (Sky), Chennedy Carter (Sky), Camila Cardoso (Sky)
Series PredictionsThe Liberty won the series in two games, with both games being close until the end.

The New York Liberty, with two-time MVP Breanna Stewart, one-time MVP Jonquel Jones, and rising star Sabrina Ionescu, have been the most consistent team in the league this season. They are currently the favorites to win the 2024 WNBA Championship and should have no problem getting out of the first round. Last year, the Liberty lost to the Aces in the finals, but this year they seem more experienced and cohesive.

Meanwhile, the Sky are in a rebuilding year, having recently traded away No. 2 overall player Marlena Mabry. The move, which helped Chicago recoup some draft capital, shows the franchise is prioritizing the future over the present. Still, the Sky have enough elite players on the roster to make any series worthwhile. Angel Reese is having a great rookie season, and Chennedy Carter might be the most underrated star in the league. When on form, Carter is one of the hardest scorers to stop, leading the Sky to an ace win in the final game before the season was suspended. Still, simply from a depth and talent standpoint, it will be tough for Chicago to take on New York in a series and find an answer for the Stewart/Jones frontcourt.

#2 Sun vs #7 Fever

Featured Players: Alyssa Thomas (Sun), DeWanna Bonner (Sun), Breonna Jones (Sun), Kaitlyn Clark (Fever), Aaliyah Boston (Fever), Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)
Series PredictionsThe Sun handily defeated the Fever in two games.

Caitlin Clark’s WNBA career began against Connecticut. If the postseason started today, her playoff career would begin too.

This is a tough matchup for Indiana. For one, there are very few players in the league who can guard elite scorers like Clark or DiJonai Carrington. Also, the Fever doesn’t have a great answer for a tough, physical player like Alyssa Thomas. The Suns are 3-0 against the Fever so far this year, with two wins by a wide margin and one close game.

This Connecticut team is a veteran bunch with a winning streak. now. The Suns had three All-Stars this season and Carrington could have become a fourth, but they acquired Marlena Mabry in a trade before the season was suspended. Mabry will help provide spacing and a boost to the offense. The Fever have made big strides after a slow start, but a young team like the Suns will have a tough time competing against an experienced, defensive-minded team like the Suns.

#3 Lynx vs #6 Mercury

Featured Players: Napheesa Collier (Lynx), Kayla McBride (Lynx), Alanna Smith (Lynx), Diana Taurasi (Mercury), Kalia Copper (Mercury), Brittney Griner (Mercury)
Series Predictions: The Lynx won three games.

Minnesota is one of the surprise teams for the 2024 season. Napheesa Collier has established herself as one of the best two-way players in the game and an MVP candidate, and when she’s healthy, they remain one of the consistently top teams in the league. The Lynx lost momentum when Collier missed a few games before the break with a foot injury, but she looked healthy enough during her time at the Olympics that she should be ready to go. Kayla McBride has also been central to the Lynx’s success, shooting 42.7% from 3-point range.

Meanwhile, the Mercury have been a nearly .500 team this year. To become a true championship contender, they will need to improve their consistency and Phoenix’s stars will need to stay healthy. Phoenix is 9-5 with Brittney Griner available, and any lineup featuring her, Kalia Copper and Diana Taurasi will be formidable.

Still, the Lynx have been the much more consistent team so far this season, and their dominating defense alone is reason to believe they have a chance at the playoffs.

#4 Storm vs #5 Ace

Featured Players: A’ja Wilson (Ace), Kelsey Plum (Ace), Jackie Young (Ace), Chelsea Gray (Ace), Skylar Diggins-Smith (Storm), Jewel Loyd (Storm), Nneka Ogwumike (Storm), Eji Magbegor (Storm)
Series Predictions: Ace won three games.

The first round series between the Storm and Aces may be the most competitive of the field. As two-time defending champions, the Aces are tougher than your average No. 5 seed and have started slow but have won 10 of their last 12 games. With Chelsea Gray back in the lineup, the Aces have a good chance of climbing even higher come playoff time.

Still, the Aces haven’t been as dominant as last year’s team and will be tested by a talented Storm roster that includes elite guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, one of the league’s best defenders in Eji Magbegor and two impressive scorers in Jewell Loyd and Nneka Ogwumike. For Seattle to have a real chance to beat Las Vegas, Loyd will need to improve her efficiency; the Paris Olympian is currently shooting just 36.2 percent from the field.

It’s hard to bet against the Aces, considering they have the best player in the world in A’ja Wilson and have proven they can win at the highest level, but when they play at their best, the Seattle Storm are as star-studded as any team and should be just as good as the Aces.