This week the PGA Tour turns its attention to the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Though the field is limited, the betting odds are attractive given the margin of victory between Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele at the top of the list.
TPC Southwind, located in Shelby County, Tennessee, is a 7,243 yard, par 70 course.
His winning scores over the past five years have ranged from -13 to -16 each year, roughly in line with the tour average.
The course’s main defense is the number of water hazards (which occur on 11 of the 18 holes).
Golfers must be precise on their tee shots and approach shots to avoid the water.
The fairways here are narrow (29 yards wide) and the greens are very small (4,300 square feet).
Driving distance is less important and hitting the fairway is more important than in most other events.
The small greens emphasize approach play and scrambling.
Here are my best outright bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship:
Patrick Cantlay (25/1, BetMGM)
Cantlay hasn’t had the best season by his standards, but he seems to be trending in the right direction.
He had consecutive top-five finishes at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship and finished T25 at the British Open.
While his track record in major tournaments leaves much to be desired, he played his best in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
He won two playoff events in 2021, won the BMW Championship in 2022 and was runner-up in the event last year.
I’m going to bet on some of the top golfers who are loving this time of year and seem to be getting back on track.
Tom Kim (33/1, BetMGM)
Going into the season, expectations for Kim were high.
Although he has not won this year, he has consistently qualified and has been in good form recently, finishing in the top eight in three of his past eight appearances.
During that time, he has steadily improved his scores with his tee shots and approaches.
He is one of the most accurate drivers in the world and Southwind’s small greens will help his iron play shine.
Few courses on the tour are better suited to Kim’s skill set.
He has competed in the tournament twice, finishing T24 and T13.
Lim Sung-jae (40/1, FanDuel)
Im has played his best golf this year, finishing in the top 12 in eight of his last 11 tournaments.
During that period, he gained two or more strokes on his tee shots five times and three and a half or more strokes on his approach shots five times.
Combine that ball-striking with his short game and there’s a clear path for him to win one of these playoff events.
He has had great success on the Bermuda Green par-70 course, finishing T6 and T12 in the event the past two years.
This is my biggest bet this week. The odds are too good to believe.
Do you bet on golf?
Billy Horschel (45/1, BetMGM)
It would normally be tough for Horschel to win a tournament featuring the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, but he won the 2022 Memorial Tournament and came close to winning the British Open a few weeks ago.
One of the most prolific golfers on tour, Horschel finished tied for seventh at last week’s Wyndham Championship after finishing runner-up at the British Open.
He loves the Bermuda green and has five top 10 finishes in the tournament during his career.
He is a golfer who can gain strokes in all aspects of the game, which is likely why he has had such success at Southwind in the past.
