FedEx St. Jude Championship: Odds, betting preview, predictions, insight

As you stroll through downtown Memphis, you might stumble upon the BB King Blues Club on Beale Street. The club is famous for its legendary namesake and has a house band that plays some of the best blues in the world. Every day, the two-story club reverberates with the sounds of BB King’s “The Thrill is Gone,” as patrons, diner-goers, and music fans all belt out this most famous tune.

But the excitement never fades at TPC Southwind, hosting the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week, a course about 30 minutes east of B.B. King’s old haunt.

It’s a golf course that requires precision from tee to green, as trouble can lurk around any corner. Water is involved on 11 of the 18 holes, engulfing countless golf balls and ruining many rounds. In fact, players Water was found more frequently at TPC Southwind That’s more birdies than any other golf course since 2003 — and that includes, of course, TPC Sawgrass, home of The Players Championship — but this southeast Memphis course has produced more birdies than any other course, with 15-under par being the winning score on this par-70 course in both 2022 and 2023.

So it’s no wonder that the past two years have seen wins by Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover, resulting in thrilling playoff finishes. The thrill never goes away at TPC Southwind. It’s always there, year after year.

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds:

Below are the latest betting odds on who will win the FedEx St. Jude Championship: DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +800

Rory McIlroy +1000

Collin Morikawa +1200

Ludvig Oberg +2000

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Tommy Fleetwood +2500

Corey Connors +3000

Viktor Hovland +3000

Justin Thomas +3500

Lim Sungjae +3500

Russell Henry +3500

Tony Finau +4000

Tom Kim +4000

Cameron Young +4500

Billy Horschel +4500

Aaron Lai +4500

Sam Burns +4500

Sahith Teegala +4500

Adam Scott +5500

Shane Lowry +5500

Photo by James Gilbert/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Predict, Select, Insight

TPC Southwind Top 10 Picks:

Corey Connors — Top 10 +230

Corey Connors has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR this season, qualifying 20 out of 20 times and finishing in the top 25 11 of those times. His best result was a solo sixth place finish at the RBC Canadian Open in his native Canada, and he also has two top ten finishes.

This week at TPC Southwind, Connors will have his fourth top 10 finish of the year thanks to his excellent ball-striking and solid accuracy off the tee. He’s played well on this course before, finishing alone in sixth place last year after consecutive weekend 65s. This year, Connors comes to Memphis ranked 30th in the FedEx Cup standings, so a good performance this week will take some pressure off him next week in Denver. The top 30 players after the BMW Championship qualify for the Tour Championship, so Connors will be motivated to play well.

Aaron Lai — Top 10 +275

What’s often forgotten in Monday’s elimination frenzy at the Matt Kuchar Wyndham Championship is that Aaron Lai, one of the quietly better players on Tour this season, actually won the tournament. Lai is fourth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and second in driving accuracy rate, reaching the fairway nearly 72 percent of the time. At TPC Southwind, you have to get the ball in play off the tee, and few have done that better this season than Lai.

But his impressive record doesn’t end there. Lai is fourth on the tour with a 71.7% green in regulation. He’s also fourth in actual score average, making him one of the few players to not make a bogey. His pace of play is certainly an issue, and it’s well-known, but his recent results speak for themselves. Apart from the British Open, where he tied for 75th, Lai hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in six tournaments since late May, including the U.S. Open. So, given Lai’s recent success and his lack of trouble, which is common on this course, we expect the two-time champion to once again find himself on the leaderboard.

Photo: Isaiah Vasquez/Getty Images

Hideki Matsuyama — Top 10 +180

Hideki Matsuyama arrived in Memphis in distress after a robbery in London forced his caddie and coach to return to Japan. The robbers stole their passports, but fortunately Matsuyama’s passport was recovered, so he can play in Memphis this week as he is ranked 8th in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The 2021 Masters champion recently won a bronze medal in Paris and has been performing well overall this season. Matsuyama is fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green on the PGA Tour, a testament to his ability to limit mistakes. He has only made 13.33% bogeys, which is good for 18th on the tour. However, the Japanese player has struggled with flat sticks this season, which has kept him from winning at times. Still, Matsuyama finished alone in 16th place last year and lost to Abraham Ansell in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2021. Despite the unfortunate circumstances off the course, he will be in contention for the win again this week.

Justin Thomas — Top 10 +260

The last time Thomas played in a FedEx Cup Playoff two years ago, the two-time major champion finished tied for 13th at TPC Southwind but was 62nd out of 70 competitors in strokes gained putting. In 2024, Thomas is again plagued by a flat stick and currently ranks 104th on the PGA Tour in total putting. But Thomas is 12th on the Tour in strokes gained from tee to green, evidence that he has straightened out his swing somewhat this season.

Expect that trend to continue this week, as Thomas will once again be in contention to win on a course where he has had plenty of success in the past. In addition to a strong finish last year, Thomas won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational by three strokes in 2020. Familiarity and comfort help, and Thomas has both this week.

Our top 5 favorite pairs:

Patrick Cantlay — Top 5 +400

Though he’s winless so far in 2024 and hasn’t had his best season overall, Cantlay has plenty of FedEx Cup points and arrives at Memphis ranked 11th. He’s still one of the best players in the world and can win any tournament on any course, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he wins at TPC Southwind this week.

After all, Cantlay lost to Glover in a playoff last year in Memphis, his fate sealed when he dropped his ball into the water on the left side of the fairway on the dogleg-left par-4 18th hole. But things have been going well for Cantlay this year. Since missing the cut at the Memorial in early June, Cantlay has finished in a tie for third at the U.S. Open, tied for fifth at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut, and most recently tied for 25th at Royal Troon. This recent trend, combined with the fact that Cantlay will be hitting his tee shots refreshed, means we think he’ll finish inside the top five and compete for the title again.

Photo by Ben Jared/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Rory McIlroy — Top 5 +180

Rory McIlroy is having a solid season, winning two tournaments in New Orleans and Charlotte, but 2024 will be remembered for what could have been. He came close to winning the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, losing by one stroke to Bryson DeChambeau. McIlroy recently had a shot at a podium in Paris, but a greedy approach late in the final round cost him the chance.

Still, McIlroy has six top-five finishes this season, including a final-round 65 at last year’s event to finish tied for third and one stroke away from a playoff. McIlroy has three top-12 finishes on this course in his career, proving he’s comfortable with the layout, so he’ll likely use his superior driving ability to seize the opportunities galore this week and earn his seventh top-five finish of the year.

Winners:

Collin Morikawa — Win +1200

Since the Masters, Collin Morikawa has been one of the best players in the world and has improved his ball striking to an elite level. He has six top 10 finishes and hasn’t come close to missing the cut since, although he did finish in a disappointing 24th place at the Olympic Games in Paris.

Still, Morikawa has done nothing but win this year, so a breakthrough victory seems on the horizon. He’s had success on this course before, and I think this week might finally be his turn. Two years ago, he finished tied for fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, four strokes out of a playoff. And last year, Morikawa finished tied for 13th. But Morikawa hasn’t scored over par at TPC Southwind in the past two years. Considering all the dangers this course holds, that’s an impressive accomplishment. So, if he can make those putts well, Morikawa will definitely give himself plenty of chances, so watch out.

Photo by James Gilbert/PGA Tour via Getty Images

Scottie Scheffler — Win +330

Surprise! Scottie Scheffler is once again the favorite to win. He’s had a fantastic season, winning multiple tournaments including the Masters Green and an Olympic Gold Medal. His 9-under 62 in the final round in Paris will forever be remembered as one of the greatest rounds in golf history. As the No. 1 ranked player in the world, Scheffler proved why he’s the best. Who’s to say Scheffler can’t do it again this week in Memphis?

After all, Scheffler plays as conservatively as any player and rarely makes mistakes. And when he does, he usually bounces back with a birdie. The numbers speak for themselves. Scheffler ranks first on the tour in bouncing back with a birdie about one-third of the time after a dropped shot. That’s Scheffler’s favorite stat. But he also ranks first on the tour in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. It’s weird. So Scheffler would be better off expecting to win, since there’s no reward for finishing in the top five or ten. And considering how great he’s been this year, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he wins.

Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation Playing Through. Follow For more golf articles, follow us on Twitter Jack Mirko In the same way.