With just three races remaining in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series is well on its way to the playoffs.
This weekend, the Cup Series heads to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Last week came to a controversial end as Austin Dillon beat Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to win at Richmond Raceway and clinch a spot in the playoffs.
Hamlin is the DraftKings favorite to win this week (+550), followed by past Michigan winners Kyle Larson (+650) and Ryan Blaney (+800).
Will we see some tough battles again as the playoffs approach?
Here are my best bets for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 (2:30 p.m., USA Network):
Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick finish in the top five (+250, Caesars)
Hamlin enters the race as the favorite to win, and for good reason.
He has finished sixth or better six years in a row at Michigan.
He was the fastest driver on a fast track in 2024.
Reddick was NASCAR’s most consistent driver this summer.
He has one finish worse than eighth in his last 10 races, but four top three finishes in his last five races.
Reddick has also excelled on high-speed tracks, finishing in the top two in the speed division in Las Vegas and Texas.
He nearly won at Michigan last season but got a flat tire while leading.
I expect both drivers to be competing for a top five finish at the very least on Sunday.
Bubba Wallace Top 10 Finish (+100, FanDuel)
The playoff cut line has changed dramatically over the past two months, with Austin Cindric, Logano, Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon all earning their way into the playoffs.
In theory, Wallace should have missed the playoffs, but that didn’t happen.
Wallace, who is three points behind Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot, has finished in the top 10 in four of the past five races.
Over the past two Michigan races, Wallace ranks third among all drivers in overall speed.
This includes a runner-up finish in the 2022 race.
Wallace needs to get every point he can to stay in the playoffs.
He should have the speed to get another top-10 finish.
Ross Chastain beats Alex Bowman (+110, Caesars)
Chastain suddenly found itself below the playoff line with just three races remaining before the end of the regular season.
He made an impressive comeback last week with his third top-five finish of the season.
Chastain has been performing consistently well on fast tracks in 2024, posting top-10 speed results in three consecutive races.
Meanwhile, Alex Bowman has only had one race with a top-10 speed ranking on this type of track.
The Michigan stats favor Chastain, who has shown top-10 speed in his past two races.
Bowman ranked 15th and 13th, respectively.
Chastain is in desperate need of a good showing, while Bowman is already locked into the playoffs.
Because of that motivation and past speed advantage, I’m leaning towards Chastain at Michigan.
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Top Ford: Chris Buescher (+475, bet365)
The third driver vying for the final playoff spot is Buescher.
He’s been in a slump lately, finishing outside the top 10 in four straight games, but that fortune should change at Michigan.
Last season, Buescher led 52 laps at Michigan to earn his first victory.
The win was no fluke: He was the third-fastest runner in the league, and he also had top-five speed in Las Vegas and Kansas this season.
Buescher has run the fastest Ford in the past two Michigan races and at the fast track in 2024.
Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski should be his biggest competition, but Buescher also has a lot of value.
I think he could pace the Ford group and compete for a top-five finish.
