Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s sudden decision to suspend his campaign and endorse former President Trump is raising questions about whether he will actually gain an advantage in key battleground states.
Some Republicans said Kennedy's move could help the GOP garner more votes in an area where President Trump is trailing Vice President Harris by a narrow margin.
Harris supporters don't expect Kennedy to give Trump a big advantage, but that hasn't stopped them from firing back at Trump.
Meanwhile, Kennedy's third-party allies are proud of their switch to Team MAGA and optimistic that their influence will grow as a result.
“Trump is going to be buoyed after this,” said a Kennedy source briefed on the discussions that led to last Friday's decision. “Bobby has a committed, mobilized grassroots army. I'm absolutely thrilled.”
Kennedy's choice to end his campaign in states that polls showed were hurting Trump came after the two campaigns reached a mutually beneficial agreement. Kennedy urged supporters to vote in states where he is still on the ballot, but his choice to remove his name from battleground states means he is no longer seeking to win the election.
Kennedy essentially conceded in a speech in Phoenix, Arizona, last Friday, announcing he would withdraw from states where he was perceived as an “election tamperer.”
“I no longer believe there is a realistic path to winning the election,” he said.
Another person with direct knowledge of Kennedy's campaign strategy said Mr. Kennedy had planned to “withdraw from all the battleground states” before dropping out of the race. Mr. Kennedy's goal was to back Mr. Trump, with whom he has met multiple times in recent months.
Kennedy even predicted other Democrats would take similar steps to endorse Trump against Harris. “President Trump will be making a series of announcements along with other Democrats who are joining the campaign,” Kennedy said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”
His comments came after several Republicans spoke at last week's Democratic convention, urging other GOP lawmakers to abandon the party and vote against Trump.
Republicans are happy to have Kennedy on their side as a surrogate, whatever his flaws, and they hope that he can help solidify Trump's support base, given his policies that range from fervent environmentalism in opposition to Republican oil platforms to anti-vaccine conspiracy theories.
“Will it affect the race? Absolutely,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “Every vote counts in this election.”
When Kennedy first became an independent, Democrats saw him as a bigger worry for President Biden.
But polls have projected a range of outcomes at different points in the election cycle, including one showing Trump trailing the former Republican president by the most: As of late July, Trump had a four-point lead over Biden and Kennedy, with Kennedy garnering roughly 9 percent support, according to a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average.
Harris has become the Democratic nominee, giving her a lead of more than five points in the three-way race, while Kennedy has just under 3% support.
Head-to-head polls have averaged a four-point lead for Harris nationally, with similarly slim leads in key battleground states. In opinion polls, Conservatives are more likely to view Kennedy favorably.
“What if 1 or 2 percent of his supporters actually voted for Trump? That would make a big difference and it really depends on the battleground states,” Bonjean added.
“The decision to speak in Arizona was carefully considered, according to a source close to Kennedy, because it would allow him to coordinate with a Trump event scheduled for later that day. Republican strategist Karl Rove predicted last week that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump in Georgia, as well as Arizona, could be beneficial, citing Biden's narrow victory in the last election.
A Republican strategist who supports Trump argued that Kennedy's national polling isn't as important as his support in the Sun Belt and Pennsylvania. The strategist said that if Kennedy's supporters back Trump in those states, it could give him the boost he needs to secure the 270 electoral votes. “I think that could make a big difference,” the strategist speculated.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio I said in a memo last week “While the Harris campaign has already maintained that this will not affect the election,” the endorsement is “good news,” he said, pointing to internal polling data that showed Kennedy votes going to Trump in seven battleground states.
But other Republican lawmakers remain cautious.
“I'd say the next 48 hours are going to be Trump's strong showing,” said Republican strategist Brian Sejczyk.
“But Kennedy's approval rating has been declining for months,” he said. “That's a good thing today, but I'm not sure it's going to have a big impact tomorrow.”
Democrats have spent nearly a year crafting an attack strategy linking Kennedy to Trump, but evidence of that connection, including joint rallies and increased media appearances, has not necessarily been reassuring.
Instead, they're now sending a message about why their alliance is bad. Democratic activists are running reports that Kennedy is seeking administration posts in exchange for endorsements, highlighting internal problems in his campaign. Reported last week Factions within Kennedy's and Trump's inner circle, including Republican Roger Stone, believe Kennedy would be better suited for the CIA, or the Food and Drug Administration or the Department of Health and Human Services. No decision has been made yet.
Democrats, eager to keep the party in the public's spotlight, have dismissed Kennedy's recent actions as unusual for a candidate who has changed political identities multiple times. For example, in 2018, Kennedy wrote a scathing editorial “He is by every measure the most hated, feared and despised leader alive,” Kennedy wrote, citing a Newsweek article about Trump. “There is no way the nation could choose a system that would put such a bellicose and irrational man in the highest position of power.”
Among Democrats, this latest shift in loyalty is widely seen as on-brand.
“I don't think he's going to have any impact on the election,” Democratic strategist Michael Ceraso said of Kennedy, but stressed that the party should not take any voters lightly.
He argued that some Kennedy supporters would view a Trump re-election as “problematic” and would grit their teeth and vote for Harris, while “hardcore” supporters might fill in Kennedy in states where his name doesn't appear as an option.
On the bright side, Ceraso added, Kennedy's endorsement could be “one of Trump's last chances to make some kind of splash before November 5th.”
Brett Samuels assisted.
