ExxonMobil released a report on Monday predicting that oil demand will “plateau” in 2030 and then remain relatively stable for the next two decades — a prediction that's at odds with the political talk of a “green energy transition.”
ExxonMobil's “plateau” in oil demand Calculated At 102.2 million barrels per day, this is roughly the same as last year's global demand. The report predicted that this balance would be maintained as developing countries significantly increase their oil consumption and the United States and Europe reduce their demand.
The report's overall vision was for a much gradual, limited and realistic “transition” than environmentalist politicians have been demanding.
If the report's projections are correct, by 2050 more than half of the world's energy will still come from fossil fuels, but emissions will fall by 25 percent thanks to cleaner and more efficient ways of burning those fuels.
“Renewable energy will play an important role, as will oil and natural gas,” ExxonMobil predicted.
Coal is reported to play a key role despite being one of the most hated fuels in the climate change movement. Assumed By 2050, oil and gas will provide 54% of the world's energy, followed by “renewables” (wind, solar, hydro) at 15% and coal at 13%. The top five energy sources will be rounded out with bioenergy at 10% and nuclear power at 6%.
Bioenergy is mostly derived from plants Converted It converts the waste from herbivores into liquid fuels such as ethanol and methane.
One of the reasons for the growing interest in bioenergy is that, when combined with coal combustion, it can maintain the energy output of coal while reducing emissions. This, combined with the belief of environmentalists that bioenergy releases excess carbon into the atmosphere and contributes to climate change, is also one of the reasons for its opposition. With coal and bioenergy accounting for 23% of global electricity generation in 2050, while oil and gas will continue to account for more than half, this is not the “energy transition” that climate activists had in mind.
ExxonMobil's oil demand forecast was significantly higher than that of rival BP, which in a similar report released this year projected demand at just 75 million barrels per day (vs. 102 million barrels for ExxonMobil).
Both predictions far That's higher than the International Energy Agency's (IEA) vision of a truly climate-sensitive consumption of 55 million bpd in 2050. But even ExxonMobil's bullish projection is lower than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) projection that oil demand will reach 116 million bpd by 2045.
ExxonMobil analysts contend that BP is wrong and the IEA is just daydreaming. Texas oil company Warned Politicians and investors argue that planning based on consumption below 102 million barrels per day, or trying to use political power to suppress demand below that level, could trigger a global oil shock that would cause the price of crude to rise by more than 400 percent.
Meanwhile, the IEA argued in June that global oil demand is set to fall sharply over the coming decades, creating a “staggering” surplus unless producers cut output accordingly.
Environmentalists have derided ExxonMobil and OPEC for predicting stable or even increasing demand for oil and gas, accusing them of self-serving companies peddling propaganda to keep investor money flowing.
Meanwhile, oil companies and the oil cartel say the IEA's demands are unreasonable, that people in developed countries will never accept the primitive standards of living necessary to meet their demands, and that low projections like BP's do not properly take into account the energy needs of developing countries.Unlike Western countries and most of industrialized Asia, these countries' populations are still growing rapidly, and fossil fuels are the only affordable means of increasing both their industrial capacity and their standards of living.
It should be noted that developing countries are leaning heavily towards ExxonMobil's view. The BRICS economic bloc, dominated by Russia and China but with a growing number of developing countries as members and aspirants, Very clear It says it will not sacrifice industrial goals in the name of emissions reduction or climate change.
BRICS countries stated They see climate change as a developed-world problem, something that must be solved entirely through developed-world spending and sacrifice.
