There's an old saying: you can't win the league in the first round of your fantasy draft, but you can certainly lose it. So is the opposite also true: you can't lose the league in the last few rounds of your fantasy draft, but you can greatly increase your chances of winning?
The final three or four rounds of a fantasy football league are where the stakes are lower and the excitement of making great choices is at its highest. These are the rounds where most players pick their kickers and defenses and throw darts without much pressure to hit the bullseye.
In these rounds, acquiring players who have proven to be useful at any point in the fantasy season (whether as weekly starters, trade targets, or simply bye week fill-ins) can be a boon to your fantasy team and put that team a step ahead of the rest.
Last week I detailed wide receiver sleepers to consider in the seventh round or later of your fantasy draft, and this time I want to go a step further and detail wide receivers you can acquire at the very end of the draft or get for free off the waiver wire.
Below are four deep sleepers to consider, with the help of the tools below: Fantasy Pros This takes the average ADP (average draft position) from three different platforms – Yahoo, Sleeper and RealTime Fantasy Sports – and combines them into one list.
None of the players named in this exercise are ranked within the top 55 of Fantasy Pros' position-specific ADP list for wide receivers in half-PPR formats, and on average, they are available after the 13th round in a 12-team fantasy draft. The entire ADP list can be found here.
Mike Williams – New York Jets
Position ADP: 59th; Overall ADP: 159th
A common philosophy that I like to follow when looking for sleepers is the concept of “follow the money.” This is the idea that if a player is signed by a team for a big contract in the offseason (or acquired for big trade compensation), that team is more likely to utilize that player on offense. If not, the money is wasted. Of course, this is not foolproof. We've seen general managers waste money in the past, but there is some logic to this idea.
Mike Williams is New York Jets Williams took a four-year hiatus last offseason to minimize his salary cap in 2024, meaning he will remain with the team in some form until 2028. Williams just finished his season after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament in Week 3 of 2023, but he is reported to have already joined the team for practice and is not on the “physically unable to play” (PUP) list, so he is expected to return to play early in the regular season.
When healthy, Williams was a weapon for Justin Herbert. Los Angeles Chargers His best season came in 2021, when he recorded 1,146 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, and in 2022, despite missing four games, he led the Chargers team with 895 yards receiving.
New York envisions the 6-foot-4 Williams as Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 receiving option and primary weapon in the red zone. Rodgers himself is recovering from a season-ending injury, but what we'll ultimately remember about him is that he's always been a great passer inside the red zone. The four-time MVP finished in the top 10 in touchdown passes from inside the 10-yard line each of the past three seasons we've seen him.
Williams doesn't require spending big bucks, and with this selection they're getting a proven commodity in a proven quarterback, whose biggest concern (injury) is heavily factored into the ADP.
Jalyn Polk – New England Patriots
Position ADP: 66th; Overall ADP: 176th
Considering the cost (essentially free), Jalyn Polk is one of my favorite rookie wide receivers to target in fantasy drafts this season. After a stint at Washington with 1,159 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, Polk showed the Patriots he could be the fifth overall selection in the second round of the 2024 draft.
The biggest reason I'm excited about Polk, other than the cost, is that the competition for targets for him in New England is lackluster. The Patriots' receiver room is headlined by second-year player Demario Douglas, who had 561 yards receiving last year and is a 2023 sixth-round compensatory pick; KJ Osborne, who has never had more than 655 yards in a season; Javon Baker, who was picked two rounds after Polk in the same draft class; and Kendrick Bourne, who is on the PUP list after returning from a torn ACL.
Polk has the resume to be considered a front-runner for the WR1 position immediately in the draft and is expected to be the starter in Week 1. Another New England player expected to be the starter eventually, if not immediately, is quarterback and No. 2 overall pick Drake Maye. Polk played a lot with Maye in the preseason, running routes on 34 of Maye's 38 dropbacks.
Polk worked out frequently with the starters in practice and was often paired with Maye in preseason games, and if he wins the top wide receiver spot, he'd be the cheapest workhorse wide receiver you can find in a fantasy draft.
Darnell Mooney – Atlanta Falcons
Position ADP: 69th, Overall ADP: 200th
Last season, five teams had two wide receivers in the top 15 in the league for snaps played (when healthy). Philadelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams had Cooper Kupp playing 91% of the minutes (non-injured games) and Puka Nacua playing 87% of the minutes, but those numbers would have been higher if he hadn't been replaced early in Week 18 and hadn't been sidelined with an injury early in Week 13.
So what does any of this have to do with Darnell Mooney? Atlanta's new offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson, just came over from the Rams, where he worked under Sean McVay since 2019. He appears to mirror many of McVay's philosophies, one of which is that the two best wide receivers rarely leave the field. Mooney has entrenched himself as Atlanta's WR2 behind Drake London and has been compensated accordingly this offseason, signing a three-year, $39 million deal (with $26 million guaranteed) shortly after free agency opened (again, chasing the money).
Mooney's best season came in 2021; Chicago Bears He finished with 1,055 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Since then, he's struggled with poor quarterback play and stiff competition, failing to reach 500 yards in either of the past two seasons. Still, the Falcons are paying him a lot of money, and he'll be catching passes from the best quarterback of his career so far in Kirk Cousins.
Rondon will be the alpha wide receiver in Atlanta, but Cousins' track record with pass distribution is promising for Mooney's future. In Cousins' final three seasons in Minnesota (excluding last year, when a torn Achilles ended his season early), he threw at least 95 passes to his second-string wide receiver (Adam Thielen) despite having the great Justin Jefferson in all three of those years. Thielen actually threw triple-digit passes in two of those three seasons, and only had 95 in 2021 because he missed four games with an injury.
Mooney has not even been drafted in most leagues, despite being on the field frequently in what is expected to be an explosive offense as the quarterback who historically uses a second wide receiver.
