The trade deadline is turning into more of an audition period than a time for blockbuster hits.
There have been instances where swaps have boosted team morale, especially in the NL West, but evolutions in the league — including an expanded playoff field, the elimination of August waiver trades and a general sense of caution about trading prospects — have meant that teams are making more trades to see if something works and then quickly walking away if it doesn't.
The team held tryout camp in August, with five veterans already acquired being designated for assignment — Eniel de los Santos from the Yankees, Shawn Armstrong and Tommy Pham from the Cardinals, Trevor Richards from the Twins and Amed Rosario from the Dodgers — and two — Huascar Brazovan from the Mets and Trevor Rogers from the Orioles — sent down to the minor leagues. Brazovan was then recalled when another Mets trade-deadline acquisition, Paul Blackburn, was placed on the disabled list.
This highlights another pitfall of deadline deals: With just two months left, the impact of even a short IL spell is greatly diminished. And at least 12 players acquired at the deadline have either already completed or are currently on the IL: Blackburn, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Alex Cobb, Zach Eflin, Luis Garcia, Imi Garcia, Austin Hayes, Hunter Harvey, Michael Lorenzen, Nick Mears, James Paxton and Lucas Sims.
I reached out to several executives to ask why there are so many player flyers at the deadline yet the impact is so minimal, and a few theories emerged.
1. This is a continuation of a cautious era in which even front offices involved in playoff contention are unwilling to give up too much future value to win now. For every arrogant A.J. Preller, there seem to be three or four executives who think that topping Baseball America's organizational prospect rankings is the actual World Series.
“This certainly has to do with the general conservatism/risk-averse behavior we see in July,” an American League talent evaluator said.
2. The expansion of the playoffs to six teams per league means more teams will be included closer to the deadline, so they are at least trying to buy in a small way, even if it feels like a facade to make the fanbase think they are trying to buy in.
3. The effects of two rule changes made a few years ago are being felt more now: 1) the expansion of September rosters to only 28 players instead of the maximum of 40, and 2) the elimination of waiver trades in August.
The trade deadline is actually a non-waiver trade deadline. Until 2019, teams could try to get a player to pass on revocable waivers in August, and if successful, the player could then be traded. Without this process, buyers at the deadline are trying to guess what they will need for the remainder of the season.
So, for example, the Dodgers are essentially trading away a less than promising player to acquire a multi-position player with the skill set to counter lefty pitching like Rosario, and if they believe they have a better replacement, then quickly pivoting away from Rosario wouldn't have a huge impact on the Dodgers.
“no one [designated for assignment] “The cost to acquire them was low because they have high salaries and, frankly, they're not that good,” said a National League executive. “Rosters will be limited to 28 players in September, so it will be harder to keep underperforming players. There are no trade waivers, so it's hard to keep them.” [in August]Teams have to make a decision at the end of July, so they may add additional players, and then they may be forced to make roster changes as rosters go to 28 players in September.”
Conversely, teams that were in championship contention in late July but realized they were out of the running could trade veterans in August to shed payroll in the age of waiver trades, which would otherwise see weaker teams looking to cut budgets or reshape their rosters, or even championship contenders, move vulnerable veterans on the brink of the 26-man roster in late July.
Taking an extreme step after the deadline last year, the Angels put a bunch of veterans on waivers in August in hopes of getting them and getting under the luxury tax threshold, which worked. No team took such drastic measures this August, but many players were put on waivers to see if there were openings.
“We're seeing a phenomenon that's unique to our times: We've essentially got a second deadline,” an AL executive said. “The first deadline was business as usual, albeit driven by fears that prices would rise and teams would be under a lot of pressure in the wild-card round. The second has developed into more of a cash-cutting deadline, with teams convincing themselves they're getting salary relief while still benefiting veteran players.”
A month after the deadline, there is roughly a 50% chance of any new signings in 2024, especially if the team doesn't make the playoffs, so there are losers and winners.
Chisholm would have given the Yankees some left-handed power and athleticism despite a stint on the disabled list and defensive inconsistencies at third base, a new position for the Yankees, but they've already moved on from De Los Santos and Mark Leiter Jr. is no longer in manager Aaron Boone's late-game circle of trust.
Phil Mutton and Jesse Winker were good additions for the Mets, Brazovan and Ryne Stanek not so much, and Blackburn had three good starts and two terrible ones before his injury.
But the real negative is that the deadline was July 30. After July 31, the Pirates had the worst record in the National League and were out of the running for the championship, and their two attempts to improve their offense, with Brian Delacruz and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, had only a .571 OPS in 201 plate appearances. Boston had a 5.03 ERA in August, and the acquisitions of relievers Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims didn't help. The pair posted a 9.28 ERA in 22 games before being placed on the IL, along with Paxton.
Meanwhile, everything the Dodgers did just didn't work. Rosario was gone, Kevin Kiermaier and Tommy Edman failed to make much of an impact offensively, but Jack Flaherty posted a 3.49 ERA in five starts to help an injury-plagued starting pitching staff, and Michael Kopech struck out 20 of 50 batters in relief for a 0.63 ERA.
As for the relief staff, the Padres added Jason Adam, Brian Hoying and Tanner Scott, who combined for a 1.50 ERA in 38 games. The Diamondbacks had AJ Pack strike out 20 of 51 batters for a 0.66 ERA, and the Diamondbacks also got some nice power bursts from first baseman Josh Bell (especially early on) to help with the loss of injured Christian Walker.
As with all trades, it will take years to know if the buyer gave in too much, but since the deadline, three of MLB's best four teams have belonged to the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks.
