In the final installment of our six-part draft preview series, Fantasy Insanity will look at changes to the draft status of various players: Next Week: Fantasy Insanity moves to Saturday.
Change can be good or bad, intentional or uncontrollable – you need to be prepared to deal with whatever change comes your way.
If you start your fantasy draft in July, as we are now, changes are expected as the season draws to a close, and while you can't always predict what changes will occur, you need to be ready to adapt.
Take Ruthie Rice, for example. His value was surprisingly low early in draft season. That could be due to a few different factors. 1. Perhaps early projections were based on his production throughout 2023, when a late burst of growth should have been the primary criterion. 2. Many assumed he would be sidelined for legal issues in the offseason, but even if that happened, it probably wouldn't be this season. 3. Draft officials placed too much importance on the contract of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who has since been injured.
Fantasy managers have realized he'd be a top wide receiver for one of the league's best offenses, and he's skyrocketed up draft boards — sometimes he'd stay as late as the seventh or eighth round, but now they have to take him in the fourth round (if they make it that far), and his value could continue to rise.
The madmen will chase him until the third minute of the second half, but if he climbs any higher we will fall back.
Josh Jacobs followed Ezekiel Elliott's path to irrelevance last season, seeing a huge drop in efficiency after leading the league in rushing the season before, after which he was traded from the Raiders to the Packers, who have a more crowded backfield.
When us weirdos were drafting back in July, he was slipping into the fifth round or beyond. He's been creeping up since then, but last week will likely spike his value all the way up to the third round.
AJ Dillon, the backup and likely competitor for carries, is out for the season with a neck injury, but Jacobs isn't out of the woods yet, as third-round rookie Marshawn Lloyd is still Jacobs' biggest competition, albeit one who is currently dealing with a hamstring injury.
Fantasy Football DVQ Commentary
Hop out the pool, open your vacation suitcase, fire up your laptop and get ready: fantasy football season is back.
Fantasy Madman is back with the latest instalment of DVQ.
The Draft Value Index is a player rating system that assigns one universal number to every player that predicts the point in the draft when a player's projected production will match up with his estimated draft pick value.
Because the disparity between the top production levels is large, the disparity between the top ranked DVQ values is also large.
A player's projections take into account playing time, expected usage/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance, and injury history. DVQ measures these projections against the player's schedule and takes into account position depth and replacement value.
These ratings are updated regularly.
While Lloyd has avoided IR or PUP restrictions, his hamstring is tricky, so it would be unlikely or unwise for the Packers to rush him, meaning Jacobs should get plenty of playing time to start the season.
Meanwhile, Kyren Williams was one of our favorites in this season's draft, feeling he was undervalued midway through the second round, before coach Sean McVay revealed Williams would still be a punt returner this season.
Now, this may be a great strategic decision for McVay to help win NFL football games — we haven't seen Williams' punt return so we can't say for sure — but for fantasy purposes, it's not good news.
Punt returners are likely to miss at least a few opportunities in the backfield per game. The increased exposure a return man faces also increases injury risk a little. It's not the end of the world, but a slight downgrade is warranted.
Then there are the PUPs, who should never be taken lightly: Nick Chubb, Jonathan Brooks and TJ Hockenson are all on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four games.
The problem is, they are drafting under the assumption that they will be on the field in week five of the draft and be 100 percent, which is not going to happen.
Do you bet on the NFL?
Whenever they return, it will take some time for them to reintegrate into the offense, and in Hockenson's case, time to gel with a new quarterback, and in Brooks' case, time to get up to speed with an NFL offensive line.
Instead, they draft Chuba Hubbard, who will get plenty of playing time until Brooks is on the field, and Jerome Ford, who will fill in for Chubb.
Just as you need to shift gears when the pace of traffic changes, be ready to pivot when you see an ADP change on your fantasy horizon.
