The Mets return home from a 10-game road trip to host the Red Sox on Monday night and will be hoping not to be disappointed.
They began this journey with a 27.3% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
But with a 7-3 record, they're just one game out of the wild-card zone, and their chances of making the postseason have increased slightly to 29.7%.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are trending in the opposite direction, going 3-7 in their last 10 games and falling 4.5 games behind Kansas City for the final American League wild-card spot.
New York is considered the favorite to win Monday's series opener, which pits Bryan Bello against Luis Severino in what is expected to be a large crowd for the Labor Day game.
Red Sox vs Mets odds
| team | Money Line | Execution Line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | +100 | -1.5 (+164) | 8 (-105) |
| Mets | -118 | +1.5 (-200) | u8 (-115) |
Red Sox vs Mets predictions
Severino has struggled to string together quality starts since the All-Star break, posting a 4.43 ERA over his last 42 2/3 innings.
But during that span, he struck out 26.6% of the batters he faced and posted a high xFIP of 3.56. He also posted an xBA of .248, likely due to the bad luck of batters hitting .345.
Opponents have hit liners against Severino just 20% of the time this season, the lowest mark among qualified MLB starting pitchers. Severino's slugging percentage at Citi Field this season is just .346.
Severino was hit with a 100 mph liner in his last game against Arizona, but he stayed in the game and threw over 100 pitches without any red flags, but his performance was poor.
The Mets' relief corps will be in good form entering Monday's game, thanks to Sean Manaea's seven innings on Sunday.
That's good news for a pitching staff that has endured some ugly collapses in recent weeks, including a spectacular flop by Edwin Diaz in Severino's final start.
But overall, the unit has posted a respectable 3.78 ERA over the last month.
So far in August, the Red Sox have ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of their effectiveness against right-handed pitching, with a 104 wRC+ and .750 OPS over the past month. Their strikeout rate is 25.6% and their hard-hit rate is 33.4% during that time.
Aside from the excessive walks, Bello's recent production has been solid, with a 3.00 ERA and 3.82 xFIP over his last five games. His hard-hit rate has dropped to just 33% over that span, while his strikeout rate has risen to 23%.
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Bello has struggled this season with runners in scoring position, batting just .274 compared to a .258 average in all at-bats, but he has put those concerns aside recently and now it is paying off.
The Mets ranked one spot higher than the Red Sox (13th) in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers last month with a 106. The Mets are striking out 26.1% of the time but are making more hard contact (34.7%).
Red Sox vs Mets predictions
Both starting pitchers for this game are in good form and should benefit from the favorable conditions for pitchers at Citi Field, with a temperature of 76 degrees for first pitch and a windy breeze expected to blow toward home plate.
The Mets will also be without slugger and former Red Sox star J.D. Martinez.
This is a good place to bet on the game total being less than eight.
Pick: Under 8 Total Runs (-115, DraftKings)
