The 2024 season has begun with the worst passing performance in league history, with just 33 passing touchdowns through Week 1 entering Sunday's games, the lowest total the NFL has seen in the past five years, according to Steve Palazzolo of The 33rd Team.
Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns
2019:61
2020: 52
2021: 61
2022: 51
2023: 37
2024: 33**MNF Pending
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 9, 2024
Throughout the first week of the NFL season, passing efficiency has declined and the run appears to be taking an early lead in terms of efficiency.
With the NFL becoming more pass-heavy in recent years, many have commented that we will eventually reach a point where the run is more efficient than the pass and the pendulum will swing the other way.
Friends, we may be rapidly approaching that point. pic.twitter.com/Rxm5XIJnGl
— Jake Grossman (@jakegrossman0) September 9, 2024
So what happened here, and what caused NFL passing to drop off so dramatically in the first week of the season?
The defender is winning the chess match
Football strategy is a lot like chess, with players making moves and counterattacks as queens and rooks on a chessboard. So far, defense has won this game. The continued use of the two-high shell has negated the explosive downfield pass, forcing teams to use the run game or quick under game. Passing has decreased significantly across the board, with teams choosing to run the damn ball to get teams out of the light box and two-high shell.
Week 1 passing percentages over the last six seasons:
2024: 60.3%
2023: 62.1%
2022: 63.2%
2021: 63.9%
2020: 61.2%
2019: 63.8%I believe this is because the golden age of the QB is officially behind us and defenses are playing more conservatively (inviting more runs and short passes). https://t.co/bwmEB8T2hm
— Coach Swami (@Moonlightswami) September 9, 2024
Depending on how conservative the defense is playing the game, the offense is forced to either scrimp on their veggies with a quick game or explode with running football. The offense has to be ready to throw the next punch.
Lack of preseason training
I know, “Preseason doesn't matter! What matters is the joint practice during the week!” I agree with you in part, but catching up to game speed is not something that can be done in an instant.
If you think about the teams that played well this first week, most of their starters played in the preseason. Kansas City played their starters for at least the first couple of drives in all three games. Houston played guys a lot and they all looked like they didn't miss a step. It's not important for starters to play every single preseason practice, but there's only so much you can do in a joint practice. A lot of teams (cough cough, Cincinnati) used Week 1 as essentially their fourth preseason game, which led to the way they performed. Not playing any preseason and expecting to play well right away is a bad process, and we're seeing the results.
It's really hard to be a quarterback in the NFL.
This goes back to the first point, but that should suffice. Playing QB in the NFL is harder than it's ever been because everything is in flux. Simulated pressure is all the rage, and what you see pre-snap is never the same post-snap. This puts a strain on the mind of a signal caller who has to diagnose the play and get to the right guy in about 3 seconds or get crushed by a 270-pound defensive lineman. Defenses are doing everything they can to make QBs suffer, while offenses are asking QBs to get access to targets in the middle of the field or move under defenders.
Overall, that should be the biggest takeaway. Being a QB in the NFL is tough, and offenses should take some of the strain off the QB by running the ball.
