An exciting Week 1 in the NFL will conclude with a compelling “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Jets and 49ers.
Who will emerge victorious in this battle between two Super Bowl contenders? Let's take a closer look at the matchup.
When the Jets have the ball
Aaron Rodgers made his long-awaited return to the field for the Jets after tearing his Achilles just four snaps into last year's Week 1. He returned to “Monday Night Football,” where he has thrived throughout his career, scoring 23 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his past 10 appearances.
Rodgers will benefit from one of the NFL's most improved offensive lines, featuring veteran offensive tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, which will also open up holes for the running game.
Breece Hall will face a 49ers defense that allowed the third-most yards to second-level running backs last year, according to FTN. Hall ranked fourth among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt, despite facing a consistently stacked box in 2023.
Versatile linebacker Dre Greenlaw will miss some time with the 49ers after suffering a torn Achilles tendon, further weakening a San Francisco front seven that lost Arik Armstead and Chase Young in free agency.
If the 49ers need to bring in additional resources to stop the run, Rodgers will be the one to take advantage, and wide receiver Garrett Wilson is poised to have a breakout season, benefiting from reliable quarterback play for the first time in his career.
When the 49ers have the ball
Brock Purdy is fresh off a breakout season in which he led the league in virtually every advanced efficiency metric, including adjusted EPA, far ahead of the rest of the NFL.
But it's fair to wonder if he benefited from an easy schedule: In four games against top-10 pass defenses last year, Purdy completed 59.1 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Under head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets boast an excellent pass defense, having the third-best defense in EPA/play last year and holding several talented quarterbacks to their worst passing performances of the season.
C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes all averaged well below their YPA averages this season and have combined for more interceptions than touchdowns.
Tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk are back on the team, but the 49ers were 20th in pass-block win percentage last year even with Williams on the field. After missing training camp, it may take the 36-year-old tackle some time to get back into form.
The 49ers are also at a major disadvantage on the interior offensive line facing Quinnen Williams, one of the most feared interior defensive linemen in the league.
Jets vs 49ers predictions
The storylines for this game are endless: Kyle Shanahan brings in former defensive coordinator Saleh, while Rodgers travels to his hometown of San Francisco to take on the 49ers, who are 0-4 in the playoffs.
I expect the Jets to make their presence felt and win a close game against the 49ers, possibly pulling off a major upset.
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The Action Network's Evan Abrams also laid out some great trends: Underdogs in Week 1 “MNF” games have posted 29-12 losses and 1 tie ATS since 1998 (71 percent), while Super Bowl losers are 5-19 losses since 2000 (20 percent).
The Jets are four-point underdogs (-110, BetMGM) in the season opener.
