It's impossible to know how tonight's debate will go, but polls suggest the pressure is on for Kamala Harris.
Nearly everyone on the planet knows what they think of Donald Trump, love him or hate him, but the vice president, who has only given one interview (speaking for 16 minutes) and generally shuns the press, hasn't debated in four years.
in The New York Times/A Siena College poll found that 28% said they needed to know more about Kamala. Only 9% felt the same way about Trump. (Who is this 9%??)
Some warning signs: Over 60% of voters want big change from Joe Biden, but only 25% say Kamala represents that change, while 53% say Trump represents that change. This is not a good sign in what is clearly an election of change.
Harris finally adds policy pages to her campaign website, devoting several sections to Trump
In upcoming debates between Harris and Trump, microphones will be muted and pre-written notes will not be used. (Getty Images)
Moreover, while about a third of Trump supporters say he is too far to the right, nearly half say the vice president is too far to the left.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Trump will try to hang Biden's record against his opponents, which is tricky since the VP doesn't hold real power, and Kamala will not only use her prosecutorial skills to debate his opponents, but also to highlight the low points of his four years in office (January 6th will be a talking point) and his own top issue, abortion, on which Trump has chaotically softened.
Overall, the Times found that Trump was leading Harris nationally, 48% to 47%, which it was quick to point out was within a three-point margin of error, and that averages of battleground state polls also showed each candidate with a one- or two-point lead, a virtual tie (so pundits should stop saying that Trump or Harris are “leading” this state or that state, when they know better).
In the end, Kamala didn't have a second chance. Or maybe she was on such a roll that she barely benefited from the DNC. After all, the VP got a month of the most enthusiastic coverage I've ever seen from a joyous, vibe-heavy campaign. Maybe Obama in 2008, but even he got some flak.
Was she high on sugar? Maybe, but this situation is making her supporters pretty nervous. But all of this will be forgotten if she does well in the ABC debate. Trump will manipulate the judges by calling ABC the “meanest” network.
Liberal think tanks have deep ties to the Biden administration, and their far-left policies could once again have a negative impact on the Harris campaign.
Here's a game that both sides are playing: Both have flipped positions as they have moved toward the center, so they are taking old or outdated positions and pretending they are current positions.
This is especially problematic for Kamala, as she has distanced herself from the left-leaning rhetoric that cost her the election in Iowa in 2019. She has said she opposes fracking and supports decriminalizing the border and ending private health insurance.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Detroit, Michigan, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
And for the most part, she's done this without explanation, other than an anonymous aide saying, “Oh, she doesn't believe it anymore.”
That allowed Trump to say that despite his change of policy, he would still ban fracking, a major issue in Pennsylvania.
Doing more interviews here might have helped her, and I hope she does more after the debate.
With both sides in the debate, chances of Trump or Kamala winning
Meanwhile, while President Trump opposes Florida's six-week abortion ban, supports free IVF treatment and has vowed not to sign a national abortion ban, Harris has insisted she would sign such a ban and pointed out that three justices bragged about overturning Roe, which has in turn sparked a backlash from some pro-life groups.
Corey Lewandowski wrote for Media Buzz that Harris is bringing up the abortion issue because it's the only issue that benefits Democrats, who he argues take an extreme stance by allowing abortion up to the ninth month of pregnancy.
Corey Lewandowski, former campaign manager for former U.S. President Donald Trump, attends the Republican National Convention (RNC) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, Thursday, July 18, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Similarly, Kamala has insisted that President Trump will implement the Heritage plan, “Project 2025,” despite the president's repeated disapproval of the plan and calling some parts of it terrible.
This may be quite confusing for voters who don't follow campaigns as closely as journalists and politicians, but at the end of the day, debates and elections aren't decided by policy.
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Trump has four years in the White House to praise or criticize, and Kamala will have to convince all the network viewers simulcasting the ABC debate that she is likeable and a future commander in chief.
My gut feeling is that this will be the only debate between the two, and if either one starts pushing for more debates later, it will be that candidate who feels the need to do a do-over.
