A new poll in the Old Dominion State presents a good news and bad news scenario for Donald Trump.
The good news?
His Democratic opponents in 2024 are performing worse than Joe Biden in 2020.
Vice President Kamala Harris has an eight-point lead (50% to 42%) and is expected to fare worse in Virginia than she did four years ago, when she had 54% support. The Washington Post-The poll was conducted by the Shah School from September 4 to 8 among 1,005 voters.
The bad news, of course, is that this is the fifth consecutive Virginia poll to show Harris with a lead of between 7% and 10%, a stark reversal from a July poll that showed a close race with Biden and an August poll that showed Harris with a slight lead.
“What's most remarkable is not only the size of Harris' lead, but also that, unlike national polls that show Trump leading on the economy, immigration and crime prevention, Trump is not ahead on any issue,” Schar School dean Mark Rozelle told The Washington Post.
Trump has a decisive advantage in many battleground states, but that's not working at all here.
For example, the former president's approval rating is below 50% among men, despite his strong support elsewhere, and Harris's slim lead, 48% to 43%, is dwarfed by her strong lead among women, 55% to 37%.
As in other states, Harris benefits from population concentration, particularly in Northern Virginia's Washington, D.C., suburbs, where a large part of the workforce is wealthy and dependent on a strong federal government. Harris leads 60% to 31% in areas adjacent to the nation's capital and 56% to 37% in the northern Virginia suburbs, and she also holds double-digit leads in Richmond and Tidewater.
Trump is doing best in rural areas, leading 60% to 30% in central and western Virginia, but the electorate is not concentrated enough for him.
Harris also appears to inspire more partisan loyalty than the former president: She has a 96% approval rating among Democrats, while Trump has the support of only 88% of Republicans.
The vice president is also appealing to voters who have strayed from what Trump and his supporters call “dangerously liberal” views: 60% of self-described moderates and 19% of conservatives support her.
Harris also leads among all age groups, with her largest lead being among those in their 40s, 56% to 39%.
Trump has 50% support among those with only a high school education and 49% support among those without a college degree, but just 33% support among college graduates, 27 points behind Harris.
