debtOr Bashir Ahmad Tokar, a 75-year-old apple farmer who is voting for the first time in nearly four decades and can't wait to cast his ballot.In the Himalayan valleys and mountains of Indian-held Kashmir, elections have long been seen as a tainted event, tainted by fraud, boycotts and violence.But as Kashmiris headed to polling stations on Wednesday for the first local council elections in a decade, the air was palpably heated this time.
“This is the first time since 1987 that Kashmiris are excited about elections,” Thokar said.
The elections, which will be held in phases until October 1, are seen as the most important in the region in years. Not only will it be the first time since 2014 that Kashmiris can vote for their regional representatives, it will also be the first since Prime Minister Narendra Modi stripped the region of its statehood.
In August 2019, Prime Minister Modi unilaterally revoked Article 370 of the Constitution, which had given Kashmir special autonomy since independence, and placed it under full central government control. A long and repressive crackdown followed, with thousands of troops deployed, hundreds of people, including prominent politicians, jailed, and the internet cut off for more than 18 months, the longest blackout in history.
For Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), full control of Kashmir has long been a central promise of its Hindu nationalist agenda, and many in his administration have praised it. But while local Kashmiris opposed the move, few were able to protest or openly criticize it. Those perceived to be involved in opposition movements were routinely harassed and detained by police, often under draconian anti-terrorism laws, and local press freedom was systematically suppressed, with many journalists detained.
“Crossroads of History”
Voters in the state saw the election as a chance to finally reclaim their voice after years of having their democratic rights suppressed. The Modi government had resisted holding elections, but the Supreme Court earlier this year finally ordered them to be held in September.
The BJP initially claimed a “landslide victory” in the elections but widespread discontent has meant the party is contesting less than a third of the 90 seats, most of them in Jammu, the only Hindu-majority region, and is expected to win fewer seats than in the 2014 elections.
“These elections are important because there is total disillusionment among the people,” said Irtija Mufti, daughter of former prime minister Mehbooba Mufti, who was once associated with the Bharatiya Janata Party. “We are at a crossroads in history. The people have never felt so deeply alienated before. They feel powerless and dispossessed.”
Historically, Kashmiris have reason to be wary of local elections: the region has been a disputed territory between India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947, and has seen three wars. Currently, each country controls parts of it, and China controls parts of the eastern part.
In 1987, the Indian government, fearing that the sensitive region would fall into the hands of those sympathetic to Pakistan, was accused of interfering in Kashmir's elections to prevent pro-independence candidates from coming to power. In response, a coalition of mass political parties boycotted the elections. Several leaders crossed the border into Pakistan and launched an armed uprising against India. Since the 1990s, the region has been hit by waves of violence and militancy that continue to this day.
But the election has not drawn calls for a boycott from separatists or terrorist groups. Instead, candidates from a range of parties, including those that support greater independence for Kashmir, are taking part, and many believe it will see the highest turnout in years. Political rallies have been packed, with many gathering to demand the release of family members held under the dictatorial regime since the 2019 crackdown.
The government in New Delhi is touting the enthusiasm as a vindication of its policies and a sign that Kashmiris have given up on their aspirations for independence.
“The sheer number and enthusiasm of people coming out to vote speaks volumes about the success of Indian democracy and the Indian Constitution,” said Nirmal Singh, a former deputy chief minister and senior BJP leader from the region. “We have been able to put an end to terrorism. What we could not do for 70 years has been achieved in the last five years under the vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”
Vote against PM Modi's 'attack on Kashmiris'
But on the ground in villages and towns, a different story is unfolding. Reforms introduced since 2019 have allowed outsiders to buy property and invest in the region for the first time, but many fear the Modi government is trying to change the demographics of Muslim-majority Kashmir.
Many also say promised investment and prosperity have yet to materialize, and opponents say unemployment is at a 45-year high.The Modi government's claims that it has quelled militancy and brought peace to the region have been shaken by a recent surge in attacks by a new batch of highly trained militants allegedly of Pakistani origin, killing about 200 security personnel and more than 350 civilians since 2020.
“On the one hand, PM Modi is seeing the high voter turnout as a referendum on his decision in 2019, but on the other hand, local parties are seeing it as a vote against his policies,” said Sheikh Shaukat Hussain, a Kashmir political analyst.
“People feel that by voting, they might finally be able to put up some kind of barrier against the onslaught that has been coming down on them since 2019.”
Mohammad Rafiq, 45, a shop owner in the town of Bijbehara, was among those planning to vote for the first time to send a direct message to the Modi government: His brother was among 51 civilians killed when Indian border police opened fire on protesters in the fall of 1993.
“When I saw my brother's blood-stained body, I vowed that day that I would never take part in such a fake election,” Rafiq said. “But now there has been such a major attack on our identity that I will vote not to vote for the BJP.”
Voters appear to be rejecting traditional parties, some of which once aligned with the BJP, in favor of independent candidates or those aligned with groups critical of the Indian government's Kashmir policies. Analysts say the BJP has allowed this surge in independent candidates to weaken support for an opposition coalition that includes India's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress Party, and the Indian National Conference, Kashmir's oldest regional party.
One of the most prominent independent voices is Abdul Rashid Sheikh (aka Engineer Rashid), a firebrand politician who has been in Delhi's Tihar Jail since August 2019 on terror financing charges. He has already won his parliamentary seat from prison in June's general elections, and is currently fielding several independent candidates in state assembly elections.
After a court granted him bail in September, thousands of his supporters turned out at his rallies. “People are coming out in large numbers to protest against Modi's policies. Their votes are against the BJP's attacks on Kashmiris,” Rashid said. He has promised not only restoration of autonomy for Kashmir but also a permanent resolution to the “Kashmir issue”.
Speaking at an election rally over the weekend, Modi boasted that “the changes in this region in the last decade are like a dream.” But at village meetings and political rallies in the surrounding areas, the same passionate slogans that Kashmiris have been chanting for years are being heard again. “Ham, what are you doing?” [What do we want?], There is only one answer:Azadi” [freedom]”
