Tennessee has become a favorite to win the championship, and the computers are screwing up (ESPN's FPI gives Tennessee the fourth-best odds of winning the national championship, ahead of Georgia).
This is a team that is less than two years away from being the top team in the country and is led by a coach (Josh Heupel) who once led a Group of Five team to a nearly undefeated season. The offense has a five-star quarterback (Nico Iamareva) who came to Knoxville on an $8 million NIL contract. The defense has a top-five draft prospect (James Pierce Jr.).
Tennessee boasts the nation's leading scoring offense (63.7 points per game) and one of the nation's best overall defenses, posting the largest point differential (plus-178) through a team's first three games in SEC history.
So the Vols are attracting roughly 80 percent of the bets (and 90 percent of the money) on their visit to Oklahoma, where the Sooners are ranked as at least a four-point underdog (15th) for the first time in 46 years.
Oklahoma has flaws, especially along the offensive line, and has struggled to defend a talented but inexperienced quarterback (Jackson Arnold) against consecutive underdogs. The Sooners appear, on the surface, to be weakened simply by moving to the SEC.
But the world looks different in Norman. Oklahoma finished in the top 10 in offense and defense last season, has the best home record in college football since 1999 and is undefeated in four of the past six seasons.
Tennessee has lost five of its six games on the road during the Vols' resurgence over the past two seasons, and now Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman, will get his first true test in his road debut against a strong defense.
The last time Oklahoma missed a single field goal at home was 24 years ago, when the Sooners beat No. 1 Nebraska. Heupel played in that game as the Sooners' quarterback. Current Oklahoma coach Brent Venables served as co-defensive coordinator.
That would be tough Oklahoma (+7) Despite attempts to replicate the feat, the line has risen by five points over the past week and reflects perception more than reality.
Illinois (+8.5) beats Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have a lot to prove before living up to new expectations after eight losses at home since 2022. Illinois has not lost by more than four points in its past nine games and is averaging 2.5 turnovers per game, which could force freshman Dylan Raiola into mistakes.
Ohio State (-39.5) beat Marshall
Ryan Day loves style points. The Buckeyes, who have outscored opponents by a combined 108-6 this season, have scored at least 39 points 20 times since 2019.
NC State (+20.5) beats Clemson
While the prospect of rooting for Death Valley's true freshman quarterback is intimidating, the Wolfpack won't be intimidated as they've beaten the Tigers twice in the past three seasons, and five of the last seven meetings between the two schools have been decided by 10 points or less.
Kent State (+48.5) beats Penn State
The Golden Flashes lost 71-0 to Tennessee last week. Not again.
USC (-6) beats Michigan
The Trojans' improved defense and Miller Moss, who completed 72.7% of his passes to lead USC to a win over LSU, will likely force the defending champions to a second loss at home in September. Good luck to new Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji, who was beaten in a preseason game by a former walk-on and has thrown just seven passes total in three seasons.
Miami (Ohio) (+28) vs. Notre Dame
I remember what happened the last time the Irish played a MAC team without three starters on the offensive line.
Louisville (-10.5) beats Georgia Tech
The Cardinals are coming off a 10-win season and their first appearance in the ACC title game in a decade and could reach even greater heights in head coach Jeff Brohm's second year. Seventh-year senior Tyler Shaw, who played at Oregon and Texas Tech, will look to showcase an improved offense against the Yellow Jackets' 91st-ranked pass defense.
LSU (-24.5) vs UCLA
There's a reason Chip Kelly took a $4 million pay cut and left a Big Ten Conference head coaching job in one of the most glamorous cities in the world to become Ohio State's coordinator: He knew a disaster like that 42-13 home loss to Indiana was in the cards.
Oklahoma State (+2.5) beats Utah
The oft-overlooked Sooner State team remains underrated despite winning 21 of its last 25 Big 12 home games (10 against ranked opponents), and the Cowboys' attractive Big 12 title odds (+800) won't last for long.
Vanderbilt (+21) beats Missouri
The last three meetings between Clark Lea and Eli Drinkwitz have been decided by an average of fewer than 10 points per game, and new Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia, who led Vanderbilt to a major upset win over Virginia Tech and New Mexico State to a win over Auburn last season, will look to close the talent gap.
South Florida (+16.5) vs Miami
South Florida students opened up the upper level of Raymond James Stadium, setting a new school record for ticket demand. The Bulls covered the spread in front of previous record crowds, including against Florida in 2021 and Alabama last season, as well as in their most recent tough battle with the Crimson Tide. The Power Four will likely bring back second-year coach Alex Goresh soon.
OLE MISS (-34.5) beat Georgia Southern University
The Lane Train isn't slowing down, and there's no room for doubt after outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 168-9.
Do you bet on college football?
UL-Monroe (+44.5) beats Texas
Forget Arch Manning. The Warhawks are led by quarterback General Booty. General Axel Booty. For real.
BYU (+6.5) beats Kansas State
The Cougars have performed well under the lights in Provo, with the team winning 29 of its last 34 nighttime games. Kansas State's Avery Johnson, who has never thrown for 200 yards, will step into this unique atmosphere for the first time and have to blast his way through a pass against a top-25 run defense.
Best bets: Ohio State University, Oklahoma State University, University of South Florida
This season: 24-21 (4-5)
2014-23 Record: 1,272-1,206-30
