Vice President Harris led the poll conducted by pollster Nate Silver. Election Predictions This will also be her first time as a model since August 28th.
Polls currently show Harris leading the polls with 48.9 percent to Trump's 46.1 percent.
In his article reporting the change, Silver highlighted just how intense the race between Harris and Trump is — it's the third time the race has changed leadership and with how close it is, it could happen again.
“Today marks the third time we've seen crossover predictions in this race. For the first time since August 28th, Harris is technically ahead in our models, but this race is a 50-50 race and this will happen often once the campaign is over. The prediction is close to 50/50.” states Silver's Silver Bulletin site.
Silver's model shows that after the presidential debate, which was widely seen as a victory for Harris, neither candidate significantly lost or gained support.
Harris' approval ratings rose around August 23, shortly after the Democratic National Convention ended in Chicago and she officially became the party's nominee.
Silver's model examines key battleground states and finds that Harris has leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota, while Trump has leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
The latest information from Silver backs up his previous assertions, which he made in late August when he claimed that if Harris could keep up her momentum for “two more weeks,” she could take the lead.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump by 3.6 percentage points, according to polling tallies by The Hill/Decision Desk.
Silver wrote that neither side should be too confident, and that “stranger things have happened than a candidate trailing in the polls winning.”
