Football handicapper Sean Trepedi makes his debut in The Washington Post's NFL Bettor's Guide.
Carolina Panthers (+5) beat Las Vegas Raiders
I smell a trap. The Raiders are coming off a comeback win over the Ravens and coming back from the road with a one-point lead against the hapless Panthers.
Carolina's offense, which has allowed the second-fewest yards per play through two weeks and only one touchdown, can only get ahead with the presence of veteran Andy Dalton.
Dalton has seen limited playing time in 2022 and beyond, but despite playing 227 fewer snaps than Young, he ranks high in expected points added per play, success percentage and completion percentage above expected value among quarterbacks with at least 500 plays.
The Raiders continue to pursue a run-heavy offense despite allowing an NFL-worst 2.5 yards per carry, a shortcoming that could hinder backdoor penetration.
New York Giants vs Cleveland Browns Under 38.5
None of these crimes seem to be able to escape their path.
The Browns and Giants rank 29th and 25th, respectively, in offensive DVOA, and here's why: An injured offensive line has left Deshaun Watson vulnerable, he's never been able to find a rhythm with his receivers, completing 58.2 percent of his pass attempts and ranking second-bottom in third-down conversions.
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Daniel Jones slowly lost steam behind a solid offensive line, the run game became shaky and the Giants suffered another blowout loss in Week 2.
The unit has struggled to respond to pressure, posting a turnover rate of 16.7 percent, and that will be even more apparent on the road against a stout Browns defense that leads the NFL in yards per play allowed.
last week: 1-1. Seahawks (L). Jets (W)
season: 2-2.
