Pollster Nate Silver said in his latest forecast update Friday. [Vice President] It's going to play in Harris' hands. ”
Mr. Silver argued that the latest national polls favor Ms. Harris, and that is reflected in his election predictions and predictions. model Nationally, the Democratic candidate has a three-point lead over former President Trump, 49.1 percent to 46.1 percent.
“Since the last update, a number of polls have been conducted, and the models have mostly favored Harris, with national polls in particular showing her lead widening to an even three points.”Silver wrote in a post published Friday.
“The forecast is still within expectations, but we're probably at the point where we want Harris to play,” Silver said.
While the polls are generally positive for Harris, Silver said there is a notable exception in Arizona. Recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University public opinion poll In Arizona, the former president beat the Democratic candidate by 6 points.
At the same time, Silver downplayed Arizona's results. Even if it's negative for Harris, he wrote, his model “somewhat shrugs off Arizona's decline in the polls, as it is relatively unlikely to be a tipping point.”
“Positive economic revisions have pushed economic numbers up quite a bit,” Silver wrote in another tweet. “It also helps Harris.”
Silver's election predictions last week put Harris in the lead for the first time since late August.
The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found that Democratic candidates held narrow leads in six battleground states, but were tied with Trump in Georgia. Harris enjoys a 4.1 percentage point advantage over the former president, 49.9% to 45.8%, in the latest poll tally from The Hill/Decision Desk headquarters.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was trailing in the polls winning,” Silver wrote. “And in America's polarized political climate, most elections are close and candidates rarely drop out of the race.”
