On Saturday night, the college football world will turn its attention to Tuscaloosa, where No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia in a key early-season SEC matchup.
Georgia is looking for revenge after last fall's SEC Championship win over Alabama, but Karen DeBoer is more interested in getting her first win as Crimson Tide head coach against Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. I want it.
Georgia vs Alabama odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| georgia | -1.5 (-115) | -125 | o49.5 (-110) |
| Alabama | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | u49.5 (-110) |
when georgia has the ball
The last time we saw Carson Beck was two weeks ago, before Georgia's bye, he was struggling to move the ball against Kentucky's defense.
He completed 15 of 24 passes for 160 passing yards in a game in which the Bulldogs had just 12 first downs and 262 yards of offense. This was a performance that pushed the quarterback's Heisman odds from 14/1 to 18/1.
That's no match for an Alabama defense that has the second-lowest pass completion percentage and ranks 11th in PFF coverage grade.
Protecting Beck from obvious passing situations will be key, and the Bulldogs will rely on former Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne on early downs.
Etienne, the younger brother of Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, averaged 6.0 yards per carry and more than 4 yards per attempt after first contact in three years in the SEC.
Alabama allowed 150 yards in contact with South Florida in Week 2, but has yet to face a running back of Etienne's caliber.
when alabama has the ball
Jalen Milroe's improvement through three games has been remarkable. He still doesn't utilize the middle part of the field at a high rate, but his mistakes have decreased significantly. His turnover-worthy play rate dropped from 2.8% to 1.4%.
Milroe remains one of the best deep ball passers in the country, completing 7 of 14 passes of at least 20 yards for 302 yards and five touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide has been active at wide receiver, but the Bulldogs' most notable player is true freshman Ryan Williams, who has caught 10 of 12 targets for 285 yards through three games. He has scored 4 touchdowns.
His elite deep speed combined with Milroe's rocket arm will put immense pressure on the back end of the defense, forcing the Bulldogs to maintain a light box against the run.
If the Bulldogs can't commit additional resources to stop the run, they have a chance at Milroe as a rusher and the talented backfield duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, who are averaging 9 yards per combined carry this season. will be held.
Georgia ranks only 95th in defensive rushing success rate, and it may be difficult to stop them from scoring on early downs.
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Georgia vs. Alabama picks
Since 2008, Georgia is 1-8 against Alabama in straight games and 4-5 against the spread, according to the Action Network.
The University of Alabama, which has played home games as the favorite for 113 consecutive games, is on the back foot at home in this matchup, but this is the first time since November 2007 that they have been on the back foot at home.
Odds are that there will likely be a change of guard in the SEC in the post-Nick Saban era, but DeBoer told his team to fire on all cylinders early this season.
Both teams will be well prepared from their bye weeks, but I'm rooting for the Crimson Tide's offense, with Milroe and Williams providing big-play threats in this game.
In what could be the game of the year on Saturday night, I'll be rooting for Alabama as the rare underdog at home.
Best bet: Alabama Moneyline (+105, BetMGM)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
