After a blowout win over the Patriots and nine days off, the Jets will play the Broncos on Sunday in the NFL's opening game (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Denver picked up its first win of the season against Tampa Bay last week, but the Broncos are in a tough position here, playing their second straight game on the East Coast and their third road game in four weeks.
The Jets opened as 7.5-point favorites and remained steady throughout the week. However, the total has been bet from an open of 42.5 to 39.5.
Let's dive into the matchup.
Broncos vs. Jets odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| broncos | +7.5 (-110) | +300 | o39.5 (-110) |
| jets | -7.5 (-110) | -385 | u39.5 (-110) |
When the Broncos have the ball
On Sunday, Bo Nix had his best game as a pro against the Buccaneers' defense, blitzing 60 percent of the time.
Highlighting his incredible speed, the rookie completed 2 of 3 passes of 20 yards or more downfield, but he's also a quarterback who understands that he won't go broke in the NFL. . This is a night and day difference from the Bears' No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams, who struggled with holding the ball too long.
The Knicks will have a tough test this week against a secondary that ranks No. 3 in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, but it's not the same pass rush we saw from the Jets last year.
Gang Green had seven sacks last week against a battered Patriots offensive line, but they were only 25th in pass rush win percentage and need Haason Reddick on the field as soon as possible.
The Broncos have struggled to find continued success on the ground, and that's unlikely to change this week. According to FTN Fantasy, Denver's offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards, and the Jets have the fourth-best run stop win percentage in the league.
Expect a large number of passes from an offense that ranks 9th in play rate.
when the jets have the ball
Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock last week and ranks fourth on the season in adjusted EPA per play.
The intellectual side of this game will always be there for the future Hall of Famer, but watching him make throws and display his mobility during the run is very encouraging for Jets fans. It should be. I didn't expect such results so early in the season after my Achilles injury.
The Broncos will cover wide receiver Garrett Wilson with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and add Rodgers with other weapons like former Green Bay teammate Allen Lazard, who has already scored three touchdowns. It will force you to defeat it.
Breece Hall will be heavily involved in the run game, but one player to keep an eye on is running back Braylon Allen. The rookie rushed for 55 yards against the Patriots and could have another big game against the Broncos, ranking 19th in adjusted defensive line yards.
It will be interesting to see how the Jets offense holds up after losing right tackle Morgan Moses. First-round rookie Olu Fashanu will take his place and make his first career start. The Broncos have an aggressive defense that leads the NFL with a 45.7% blitz rate and ranks second in pass rush win percentage.
Player Props: Broncos vs. Jets Best Bets
I don't feel too strongly about the spread or totals in this game, but I like some of the player's prop angles.
Bo Nix has completed 18.5 passes in each of his past three games, and the Jets have a good secondary, but they typically play in cover-4, forcing opposing quarterbacks to dine and dunk. I'm happy to let him go on the field.
Of the Knicks' 113 attempts this season, 48.7% have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he's comfortable receiving those short-area passes.
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This matchup should also favor Braylon Allen, who converted a season-high 14 chances. The rookie running back is averaging 5.1 YPC and ranks fourth in yards after contact with 4.11 yards per attempt, according to PFF.
The game scenario and matchup should favor Allen to continue his success on the ground.
Betting player props:
- Bo Nix completes over 18.5 times. (-115, bet 365)
- Braeron Allen topped 34.5 rushing yards. (-110, BetMGM)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
